32s getting decent odds @ BB. call/fold?

i like to call here good pot+implied odds we r most likely stacking villain on A32/A22/A33/A54

Hi all,

I think there's too many bad postflop spots we get into with this hand. Either that, or we just end up check/folding too often.

Originally posted by chenny8888
Hi all,

I think there's too many bad postflop spots we get into with this hand. Either that, or we just end up check/folding too often.

what bad postflop spots we get in chenny 45bb deep and need to invest 1bb geting more then 5:1odds on call with hand that we play like pp(ether we hit perfect or fold

standard call with 32s.
You should fold if every blind matter (likely below 15bb) and that is likely the only reason.
Even if you c/f every time it still shows profit if you hit your two pair, trips, flush or straight. Also you can call/lead/checkraise a lot of times with flushdraws, pair+draws and so on

And I think most players would not give you credit if you c/r on 22x board

best regards,

Thats was my point.

If we flat and the board comes for example 22Ar, they would never think of me having any 2x hand in my range and wont give me any credit I guess.

Also, yea, I could win from time to time with a lead, or check/raise some flops.

I need to elaborate more. Lets say we end up check/folding flushdraws. Then from this site (cut me some slack for this please heh http://www.texasholdem-poker.com/calculator?card1=2&card2=3&suit=Suited&chance_format=percentage&decimals=2 ):

Chance of getting a Straight Flush on the flop: 0.01%
Chance of getting 4-of-a-kind on the flop: 0.01%
Chance of getting a Full House on the flop: 0.09%
Chance of getting a Flush on the flop: 0.83%
Chance of getting a Straight on the flop: 0.64%
Chance of getting 3-of-a-kind on the flop: 1.57%
Chance of getting 2 Pair on the flop: 4.04%

We're continuing with the hand about 6.5% of the time. Except for the 1.6% of the time we flop trips, a straight or a boat (or better), the implied odds and the reverse implied odds of our hand are almost always similar on a lot of boards. Keep in mind your opponent's equity when you get it in on 32x boards with two pair: they never have less than 30%, and sometimes have you dead. So even if we need about 14% equity to call preflop, we need to recover enough chips to account for the 93.5% of the times we check/fold the flop.

We can also consider what happens if we decide to continue with flushdraws/straightdraws. Then we easily flop things often enough, however we're out of position and can be up against better draws. Implied odds are horrible, and there are definitely a lot of reverse implied odds along with our obvious chances of just missing the board.

So: I'd complete here with hands that can continue when you flop a flushdraw, otherwise outright folding is better.

I agree with chenny8888 and fold.

You are probably not stacking QQ or JT on an A23 flop.

32s looks like a connector, but it's not. It is a 2-gapper. It makes the same two-card straights as 52, and fewer 1-card straights.

If you think this is a clear call, then you must make calls like this a lot. How do these hands do in your database? Filter out anything decent, and look at hands where the effective stack was over 20 bb and you defended the big blind by overcalling a raise where the first caller was not the small blind. Par is to lose 1 BB/hand.

I have to disagree with the probabilities from that web site. There are 3*3*44 = 396 ways to flop two pair, not counting a paired board, out of 50 choose 3 = 19,600 flops, or 2.02%. See pages 46-50 in my book, The Math of Hold'em. To get 4.04%, that web site is counting paired boards like QQ2 as flopping two pair, and boards like JJJ as flopping 3 of a kind. I hope you don't count on making a lot off of flops like QQ2 and JJJ. You only outflop an overpair about 5% of the time, not the 7% that site suggests.

You can steal a few pots when no one hits, and maybe you can snap off a bluff with bottom pair bottom kicker, but that's not one-sided. You also end up bluffing off chips when you stab at a pot and encounter resistance, or you try to catch a bluff and get shown third pair. There is a limit to the fancy plays you can make because you start with huge disadvantages: You are out of position and your hand is trash.

Hello,

Thanks for your thoughts to both chenny and pzhon. Really extensive analyz.

I tend to fold alot of my BB's in the past, so I dont have alot of those hands in my database. I actually doubt Ive ever defend my BB with 32s, or something similar but Im starting to look at those spots and think about them more because I find my self being really tight from my BB even when Im getting decent pot odds.

I must agree that 32s is pretty trashy tho, but posted it just because of the exellent pot odds we are getting.

Thanks again!

While you are getting 5:1 pot odds, 5:1 to try to beat two players is much worse than 5:1 to beat one player. Perhaps it would be better to say that you get a 50% discount on the 2 bb everyone is putting into the pot. I don't think this discount makes up for the disadvantages of position and hand strength.

Another way to look at it is as an investment, and drill down into the possibilities for the flop. Calling is sure to cost 1 bb now. How much do you get back from the pot on average in each scenario, and how likely is each? For example, suppose you flop bottom two (2.02%) and can get all-in against one pair for 36 bb against one player (perhaps 1/4 of the time that you flop two pair -- you have to estimate this). How much do you gain in this scenario? You invest another 34 bb, and get 74 bb, say 75% of the time. Count that as a return of .75 * 74 - 34 = 21.5 bb. So, if this happens about 0.5% of the time, that's worth about 0.1 bb. Of course it is worth something if you flop two pair and your opponents don't like the flop enough to continue, perhaps something between the 6 bb pot and the 21.5 bb value of getting all-in. If you can find a total return of 1 bb, this would justify the call. However, I don't think you can do it without finding a lot of value from the times that you flop bottom pair or a draw. My guess is that you will be a few tenths of a big blind short. If there are antes, it gets closer, but I think it should still come out to a fold.

You can also drill down into the possible holdings of your opponents. Suppose the button has AJ. When will that work out well for us? We can hope to flop two pair or trips or a straight while AJ flops top pair. However, what happens when the button has 77? What flops would 77 really like that we would like with 32? After we start showing strength in a 3-way pot, even a board like 532 doesn't look that good for 77. Does it help or hurt us that the button may have T9s in his range? Again, when someone with T9s wants to stack off in a multiway pot, it's usually with a big draw or more than one pair, and on average that isn't very profitable for us.

I want to comment on one other thing. Someone said, "You should fold if every blind matters (likely below 15 bb)." It's a common mistake to believe that blinds don't matter if you have a bigger stack. If you lose 2% of your stack, and it is far from the money, then you lose about 2% of your equity in the tournament. If you started with 1500 chips, 6400 chips may represent multiple buy-ins of equity, or several tournaments of expected profit. Always assume that the blinds matter. Even very early in the tournament, you should not defend the blinds or call a short stack's push with trash just because the amount of chips involved seems small. You need to get something back which is worth the investment.

yeah again my analysis was very rudimentary (apologies). Obviously using something like StoxEV would be much more conclusive. Even so, with the "liberal" analysis 32s is still a clear fold.

I'd say K2s would be a call though, however I probably defend more than others in this sort of situation.