This hand has kept me awake for a couple of nights now, thought I'd post it here and see what you guys think.
Playing in a live tournament, 80 or so runners, £20 buy-in, 1.2m chips in play (approx).
7 handed on the final table, the bubble has just burst, chip leader is a middle aged gentleman who I don't recognise as a regular, who I'd seen call a massive raise from a very big-stacked (and lucky) fish with AKo on a flop of 10,Q,X and hit the straight on the turn.
So, the final table is tight, the blinds are eating everyone up, no antes, I'm on about 120k, the villain about double that, blinds at 10k/5k. My table image is quite tight, though I've stolen a couple of pots, and players are, generally, respecting my bets and raises.
I raise 2.5bb from the button with 77, called by the big blind (chip leader).
I'm thinking his range here is very broad, he can afford to defend his blinds with a lot of average hands, though I am sure that he doesn't have a good/premium hand as he's been re-stealing a lot, including once from me when I raised in the hijack with AJs about 7/8 hands previous, and from what I've seen he doesn't vary his play an awful lot, though he does pick his targets well, and doesn't give away much from body language, nor does he talk. ever.
Flop Q-7-4 (rainbow)
he bets 1.5bb, i flat call.
All I'm thinking about here is extracting maximum value. He's betting into a pretty dry board, weakly. I think he's hit the queen and value betting thinking he's in front, so I'm happy to let him. Putting him on Q-10 or Q-J, making me 95%ish to win the pot
Turn Q
he bets 3bb, i flat call. He's sure he's in front here, I'm happy to let him continue thinking that, and although he's developed a couple of more outs I'm willing to take the risk of him hitting a 10 or J. If he hits another Q I can get away from it too.
River 8
he bets 2bb, i jam, he calls and turns over Q8
Like I say, this has kept me awake the last couple of nights.
I don't think, given his chip stack and what he'd already committed to the pot, that he could possibly have folded on the turn. Its possible he could have folded had I shipped on the flop, but I can't be sure.
How would you guys have played this differently in this spot? At this stage in the tourney, would it have been better to ship on the flop, forcing him to make a decision then? Do you think I narrowed the range too much?
cheers
(also, sorry if this is in the wrong section...)
