SH NL50 zoom QQ full vs R raise

Hey,

Preflop you can definitely consider 3betting. You are deep so will get quite a few calls from worse that will just try to hit. Flatting will also be OK.

Flop seems fine against such a bet from him but on the turn I would bet bigger. He has Kx extremely often here, so his calling range is very inelastic. On the river I think bet folding is fine. He would have to turn AK and KTs into a bluff for you to consider calling there or possibly showing up wth AT, JJ as a value raise which is extremely unlikely imo.

I need 23% for break evean call, he has 8 combos of better fullhouse so I need him to have 3 worse combos for profitable call - so set of 2 already 3, AcTc might sometimes overplay, for bluffs we could give him one combo of JcTc and sometimes evean JJ could have come till the river. Am I counting corectly?

Will 22 always raise river after such a strong line? To me that also seems overplaying so you basically need him to overplay to ever call here. You are definitely counting correctly, I just think you are overestimating how often he shows up with 22 as a raise here.. If he thinks it's the nuts, why not raise flop with it? The only hands you rep for value are 22, QQ and KQ. If he has 22 you never have 22 so how can he value raise that?

Not always maybee less than 25% of the time I cannot say exactly my main concern is I need just 3 combos of bluff "value" "overplaying" whatever from his range OTR for my call to be profitable. And sometimes I see such vierd plays overplays or made hand turned in to a bluff that then they rep super thin and I have good odds I end up caling, most of the time they have it but, sometimes not. I guess I need to filter my 'quastionable calls" and see if those time than they do not have are >25%. Or maybee I just finding reasons to justify my loose calls. For example in AA hand which I also posted he had 66 And that happened just before this hand, so it encourge me to call also.

Yep, that's the best way to do it. You can search and see where it's actually likely enough for people to do silly stuff. Player pools and games constantly change, just because I know it to be a close situation but a fold it doesn't mean it can't easily change into a call. I've rarely found myself good in such a situation against a random opponent which is why I am inclined to keep going the folding way. That said, you have a great 'bluffcatcher' so if you are going to call anything, you have a good hand for that ofc.

Regarding the AA hand, that is also info you can use.. knowing what happened there, now also this hand you already have (I assume) 2 hands where people tried to raise as a bluff with a made hand. That should make you more inclined to believe it will be harder to get value on the river with calls but instead you can induce raises.

Here he had KJ so 1 - 1, I'll try to filter my db against river R and see.