NL 50 - 69s fd on flop

Hi Vasili,

Preflop: a bit loose but we'd like to isolate SB who seems to be fishy.

Postflop: Based on the stats that you have for villain, which are many, what range can you assign him for the ck/raise?

How does our hand do against that range?

Also, take into account your smaller cbet on a very connected board which can induce bluff/weak semibluff raises.

Given that we bet so small and could have induced an aggro guy to raise I can't see folding as a great option.

But before we give a verdict I'd like to see your opinion regarding his range and our bet size.

As a side note, when you leave a reply, please hit the advise judge to take another look button.

Best regards,

Bogdan

Hi Bogdan,

I think that agains his ck/r/shove range is something like this: TT,88,KTs,AdQd,AdJd,Ad7d. Against this range we have 33-35% equity. So given this i computed the folding eq that we need so our 4bet-shove would be profitable and i was disappointed to see that we need 50% folding equity.
I computed this before posting the hand but i wanted a fresh opinion, cause i'm going through a downswing and i might see monsters everywhere.

I don't really know about his ck/r/folding range but it should contain at least 13 combos (given the hands i said he would ck/r/shove).

Sooooo ..... i'm still not sure ... but i guess a fold would be ok if my cbet would've been $2.5.
What are your thoughts ?

Thanks again.

Edit: i was on my way out and wrote this in a hurry. i guess there is also some merit in just calling and there are some scenarios where he would ck/fold but i think that overall this play is -ev

Originally posted by VasiliZaitsev
Hi Bogdan,

I think that agains his ck/r/shove range is something like this: TT,88,KTs,AdQd,AdJd,Ad7d. Against this range we have 33-35% equity. So given this i computed the folding eq that we need so our 4bet-shove would be profitable and i was disappointed to see that we need 50% folding equity.
I computed this before posting the hand but i wanted a fresh opinion, cause i'm going through a downswing and i might see monsters everywhere.

I don't really know about his ck/r/folding range but it should contain at least 13 combos (given the hands i said he would ck/r/shove).

Sooooo ..... i'm still not sure ... but i guess a fold would be ok if my cbet would've been $2.5.
What are your thoughts ?

Thanks again.

Edit: i was on my way out and wrote this in a hurry. i guess there is also some merit in just calling and there are some scenarios where he would ck/fold but i think that overall this play is -ev

We can also add some T8s combos in there but as you said we need a lot of FE there however, given our small cbet, I think it's possible that he does have a lot more combos of bluffs/weak semibluffs so I'd be tempted to go for the 3-bet. And if he ships it comes down to pot odds really.

Now, if the games you play in are not generally aggro and you don't g et raised often then we might as well just fold.