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NL10 AT toptwo vs donk/Jam. (with results)

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DaPhunk
Joined: 01.03.2008

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $10.00
CO: $6.40
Hero (BTN): $10.00
SB: $14.00
BB: $4.60

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with T :spade: A :heart:
UTG raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.00) A :spade: 6 :diamond: T :diamond: (3 players)
SB bets $0.60, UTG calls $0.60, Hero raises to $1.65, SB raises to $13.70, UTG folds, Hero calls $8.05 all in

Turn: ($21.00) 3 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

River: ($21.00) 5 :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

Final Pot: $21.00
Hero shows T :spade: A :heart:
SB shows 6 :club: 6 :heart:
SB wins $20.06
(Rake: $0.94)

303 hands on SB and he is 21/16, 3%call open on SB, 1.8% overall 3Bet, 50% flop aggression and he didn't donkbet on previous 3 chances he had to.

Again, this has to do with how I should interpret results. I keep getting these situations with top two and get it in thinking "KQ QJ w/ or without FD's etc, there should be enough in his range to let me call but I don't like it".

I think that over-bet jams are somewhat more likely to be draws than sets in general so there will be some big differences in these various hands and I'm sure I must have some sort of selective memory going on, because I only seem to be able to remember that they just always have the one set in their range that I give them.

(note, I'm ignoring the times when I feel his range is 'obviously' containing enough air, flush draws etc to make the shove good, the spots I'm talking about always happen vs TAGs or Nits)

So now I have to ask myself the question, "Do I have the wrong impression of what villains ranges are in this position?"


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2 replies
mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

It's purely a matter of pot odds vs pot equity.

pot odds = 8/21 = 38.1%
pot equity = go count your equity vs sets/A6s/combo draws

i'm pretty sure you have more than enough here.


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DaPhunk
Joined: 01.03.2008

Scenario 1:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 41.78% 25.62% 16.16% AhTs
MP3 58.22% 42.05% 16.16% 66, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

Scenario 2:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 46.69% 32.04% 14.65% AhTs
MP3 53.31% 38.67% 14.65% 66, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, ATo

Those ranges are purely combo draws + set + two-pairs. I'm only so far behind that I can find a fold when he has this range or tighter;

Scenario 3:

Equity Win Tie
MP2 34.04% 34.04% 0.00% AhTs
MP3 65.96% 65.96% 0.00% 66, KdQd, QdJd


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