Hello.
Villain is 20/16/7.9 reg (833 hands). His stats are as follows:
OR MP: 14
Fold to 3-bet: 73
Fold to 3-bet vs. Hero: 83
Fold to 3-bet MP vs. BU: 67 (3)
Fold to flop c-bet 3-bet pot: 33 (3)
Fold to turn c-bet 3-bet pot: 100 (1)
Obviously some sample size issues here. I choose to 3-bet pre since he folds super often and will be fairly face up as AJ/AQ/99-QQ if he just flats (seems fairly fit or fold so far). He does flat and I don't c-bet here which may be a mistake. I just feel like if I c-bet this board I'm going for 3 streets to fold out 99/JJ/QQ. Looking at it now I think it makes my hand kind of look like some Ax or something, and he can bet/bet with AJ/AQ on turn/river?
Anyway, on turn I bet value ... std I think. What do you do on the river in this spot? So many draws have missed, but the over-bet donk shove just looks too obvious to be a missed draw (would regs at 100 really shove there w missed draws?). But what value could he possibly have ... why would he not raise turn but donk river?! (I called).
Party, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
MP: $102.20 (102.2 bb)
BB: $103.96 (104 bb)
SB: $40.88 (40.9 bb)
CO: $97.48 (97.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): $100 (100 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q
K
MP raises to $3, CO folds, Hero raises to $9, 2 folds, MP calls $6
Flop: ($19.50) 7
T 8 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks
Turn: ($19.50) K (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $12, MP calls $12
River: ($43.50) 2 (2 players)
MP bets $81.20 and is all-in, Hero ???
