NL5 ZOOM: river decision 3b pot

Hi.

Why do u think he is not turning missed draws into bluffs? Ill call here.

I only see him have missed hearts then... With me having Ah makes even that less combos. That combined with his low AF (after 20 hands) made me fold.

I have a hard time playing rivers... can you recommend me some video/book. The articles on ps.com are very basic about riverplay.

Hmm actually you may be right, upon 2nd thought. I would like to know his fold to Flop cbet. The higher this number is, the less likely he is to have backdoored spades, and the more favourable calling becomes.

What can the fish have on the River?

Better hands
JTs (calls flop with a gutshot and turned OESD)
KsJs, KsTs (Some straight draws which hit some backdoor flush draw)
AQ, AJ, A9s, A8s (better top pairs with stronger kickers)
8h9h

Worse hands
KhJh (likely to raise the Flop as it is a combo draw)
Jh9h, Jh8h, 8h7h, 8h6h (unlikely to turn those into bluffs)
AX (probably checking back on river with these hands)
5h6h,6h7h,5h7h (the few suited connectors with no Showdown value)

I think we got the worst river in the deck so c/f seems like the better play.

What about other rivers?

-2 of diamond: I think this is a snap call
-8 of diamond: Close, now we still lose to JTs but we beat some backdoor draws like KsJs and KsTs which is another 2 combos of hands we beat
-2 of spade: I think this is a better card than the 8 of diamond. The 8 basically coordinates the board and I think way more hands benefit from the 8, than from the spade. 8 improves JT and gives many more hands some sort of pair value.

About the AF

From my experience, many fishes have very low Flop and Turn AF, and relatively higher River AF. These players usually play really passively on the earlier streets and take free cards, and then bluff on Rivers when they have no showdown value any longer. Your sample is a little too low for us to make a decisive read on his river tendencies.

Thanks for the detailed river evaluation. No sample on fold to cbet. Well yeah he folded 0 out of 1 time.