KQ nl100 zoom Squizzing

Hi.

Preflop: The squeeze is good and i squeeze this pretty often myself.
About MP - I don't necessarily agree that MP should be 3betting QQ+ all the time. In fact if MP is not really having a 3bet bluffing range here, he should also flat all his monsters. But it's unlikely he has a monster when he did not backraise over your squeeze.

Flop: No way I'm folding here when he can have some draws. Look at his fold to 3bet, it's really low. His range is pretty wide here and we only lose to 77 and AQ and 44.

Odds = 70/190 = 36.8%

Reason why the range I am assigning him is so wide is that he has a really low fold to 3b, and a really high MP CC % of 15%. Having the Kc really hurts our equity though - He has much fewer combos of flush draws now.

Board: 7c4cQd
Equity Win Tie
MP2 35.82% 25.96% 9.85% { KcQh }
MP3 64.18% 54.33% 9.85% { 77, 44, AQs, KQs, AcJc, QcJc, AcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, 9c8c, Ac7c, Ac6c, AQo, KQo }

While we have insufficient equity to call it off here according to my assumptions, I think we should discount 77/44 slightly because people are likelier to raise smaller or trap. I think this shoving play is likelier to be a draw or some weaker made hand like KQ/QJs/QTs (I did not include QJ and QT)

This analysis seems really useful to me, I would never have given a 22/15 this range for shoving on the flop before. I get that annoying feeling that although he "should" have loads of draws here, he always ends up having a set ♦

Nice hand, good reading!