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NL100 AJs 3bet pot IP

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bisovic
Joined: 04.08.2011

Villain 23/19/3bet 8,3/af 2,6/cbet 72,52/4,1k hand

If villain has A9s here should he shove it on the river?
Would he turn into bluff hands like 9Ts,78s,JTs?

IPoker, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BB: $106.22 (106.2 bb)
UTG: $294.35 (294.4 bb)
MP: $102 (102 bb)
Hero (CO): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
BTN: $275.60 (275.6 bb)
SB: $102 (102 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with J A
2 folds, Hero raises to $3, 2 folds, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

Flop: ($20.50) 8 T Q (2 players)
BB bets $12, Hero calls $12

Turn: ($44.50) 6 (2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero calls $30

River: ($104.50) A (2 players)
BB bets $54.22 and is all-in, Hero calls $49.50 and is all-in


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

What are the likeliest hands for you on the River? Are you defending AJ/KQo here? I don't think so right? He doesn't seem too aggro to me and you are in CO, not BU. Are you 4betting AQ and TT preflop?

KJs (4 combos)
J9s (4 combos)
TT/88 (6 combos)
AQ (9 combos)
AJ (4 combos)
KQs (3 combos)
QJs (3 combos)
QTs (2 combos)
35 combos

You're supposed to defend top 66% of your range vs a balanced opponent's half pot bet. AJ is borderline.

When we think about this exploitively, I think we can fold river. I don't think BB is going to be bluffing here too often based on bet size on the Turn and also based on the fact that the ace isn't that great of a card for him.


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