0,5/1 SH K6s nearly nuts foldable ?

Hi!

Preflop:
-agree with OR looser but I would have in mind hands with good playability or SDvalue.This one is borderline but should be fine.Just in general its often pretty hard to play trashy hands vs maniac
-wouldnt have a limping range here because raise does good things as well, BU,SB will not always call,which will create some HU spots(while limping nearly never will and its never bad to have initiative and be able to control the hand; also if you mostly play hands SDvalue/good playabilty you dont really mind that its a raised pot preflop as its almost for value
...I like this OR but would be bottom of my range
Flop:
Im really a fastplay type of player and I would just 3bet the flop.Nobody believes you and you will certainy get looser calldown or further action which is exactly what you want on this flop
-dont say that calling here is bad but wouldnt be my prefference since I seriously doubt SB will fold overpair here,especially since he prolly knows that BB is a maniac.At the same time if he does fold overpair that is just terrible since he is folding the best hand super often.Its a perfect spot for you to go for a 3bet with A :club:x and BB can have anything
-3betting here doesnt represent a flush,at least not as much as raising on further streets where guy with low WTSD can really fold overpairs
-another good reason for a 3bet is that pot on the flop will get boosted and further folds from SB will be much much harder which is just awesome having a maniac in the hand
...I do believe that just 3betting here has higher EV than calling

Turn:
-interesting call,as played it may actually be the fine play since protection has no point except against 2pair which is highly unlikely.
-calling here is intended exactly for overpairs with no FD to call 1 more bet. so 12 combos of JJ-AA,also nitty players may(which SB is) may not even 3bet this flop with JJ,QQ
-you have to know that at the same time you loose value vs overpairs with FD,sets or even some other hands,like A FD,also its not totally neccessery that he will fold overpair.I would say that these combos are about as many as those above=12(3 from overpairs,6sets + some other)
-if you get called here by SB you will highly like also get called on the river while if you raise on the river chance that he will fold there is quite high
...after rethinking I would still go for 3bet,its just for value and you wont really gain that much from slowplaying this,calling on the other hand doesnt see that bad either,my default would be to 3bet though

River:
-sad but interesting
-calling donk/raise is fine but after 3bet from SB I dont think you are ever ahead if these reads have any merit so I would fold here...

...on the river he either has Ahigh flush(that being AA or any other possible FD,he can also have QQ,JJ which got flushed and he donks to prevent freeSD but from a guy like this I would seriously diminish these possibilites.
But then he 3bets... all A are still there and now JJ,QQ will never get 3bet by nitty players(JJ for sure and QQ maybe once in a year). In the same category may be hands like Jc9c(which has you beat) and QcJc which played very wierd on the turn and like QQ will almost never bet here.

so you are getting 1:12 which should not be given here. He doesnt have a bluff so you need him to have QQ or even less likely QJ which he played very optimistically. Lets give him one combo and random hand to BB(which is prolly stronger since he will not cap total air always so he has at least something there)

Equity Win Tie
CO 9.53% 9.53% 0.00% Kc6c
SB 89.91% 89.91% 0.00% AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, QdQc, AcQc, AcJc, Jc9c, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs
BB 0.56% 0.56% 0.00% random

...even this is borderline call,but if you make BBs hand better that he at least have two pair then you equity drops even further and I really doubt SB does have Qhigh flush here

...I would fold river

If the table is as loose as this hand suggests then I'd generally play K8s+ from CO. Depending on how the maniac is currently spewing I might fold here either way.

I really love jamming this turn though. Calling there when maniac can spew weak draws will be missed value.

Given your line the river is painful. We've under repped the 3rd nuts but have a strong chance of being up against the A♣.

I think its not a mistake to assume we pay an average of 3 BB on the river when it goes bet/raise in front of us.

That gives us 7.5:1 odds to show down. If we're slowplaying flopped nut flush and/or play A♣ this way we end up with many more hands that continue. However, as mentioned I would jam turns.

I would actually fold vs the initial bet/raise. We really have enough information at that point to suspect SB has something like AA:club: and BB has whatever 2 pair, club draw, or straight.

If your read is right, the SB (nitty guy) is rarely going to have Q♣ here. Much less often than we would need to call the first 2 bets. I'm going to say fold vs the initial bet/raise.

I think that SB does have J :club:J,Q :club:Q there in at least 1:10. I would say its quite a weak fold at that point.

Whether the nit leads river with J/Q:c is a debate which isn't easy to resolve without evidence. Once I say "probably not Q♣ often enough" and you disagree, its really time for evidence to settle the score.

I think we can take another route though.

Once we decide to coldcall our range is pretty well understood. If we fold to a cap with this, then we fold everything and we know thats hard to justify.

So my point here is that our cost to continue isn't 10:1. It really is more, and my guess is 7.5:1

That means we need to win over 13.5% of the time to continue.

For both players to have worse than us 13.5% of the time, individually they must have worse than us over 37% of the time.

Now, we can chop that up any way we like. It doesn't look good. The maniac might be equally likely to spew with all clubs and straights and some other random trash, but he's still going to have A♣ sometimes. If the maniac doesnt have A♣ then the nit has it far more often than his fair share, probably not far off 80-85% of the time. And theres even that straight flush combo.

If its one opponent for two bets, then calling is way easier. 2 opponents for an average of 3 bets is rough.

1. Sure its hard to say that he does or doesnt lead with anything else than a nuts there but saying the oposite is also pretty hard when looking at such huge pot.
2. Once we call our range is defined,it is true but I looking at how we played our hand I seriously doubt we have anything else than a Khigh flush anyway.Also I think we dont have to fear SB in this place as he will always have a flush and will not turn Q or J high flush into a spew especially not with 2 players in. Another good thing is when he calls,we have a pretty easy call if maniac 3bets so I would say if any more bets will go in they will go with much higher equity.

CO 12.04% 12.04% 0.00% Kc6c
SB 81.12% 81.12% 0.00% AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, QdQc, QhQc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs
BB 6.83% 6.83% 0.00% AdAc, AhAc, AsAc, KdKc, KhKc, KsKc, QdQc, QhQc, QsQc, JdJc, JhJc, JsJc, TdTc, ThTc, TsTc, AcKc, AcQc, KcQc, AcJc, KcJc, QcJc, AcTc, KcTc, QcTc, JcTc, Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c, Ac8c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Jc8c, Tc8c, Ac7c, Kc7c, Qc7c, Jc7c, Tc7c, Ac6c, Kc6c, Qc6c, Jc6c, Tc6c, Ac5c, Kc5c, Qc5c, Jc5c, Tc5c, Ac4c, Kc4c, Qc4c, Jc4c, Tc4c, Ac3c, Kc3c, Qc3c, Jc3c, Tc3c, Ac2c, Kc2c, Qc2c, Jc2c, Tc2c, AdKc, AhKc, AsKc, AcKd, AcKh, AcKs, AdQc, AhQc, AsQc, AcQd, AcQh, AcQs, AdJc, AhJc, AsJc, AcJd, AcJh, AcJs, AdTc, AhTc, AsTc, AcTd, AcTh, AcTs, Ad9c, Ah9c, As9c, Ac9d, Ac9h, Ac9s, Ad8c, Ah8c, As8c, Ac8d, Ac8h, Ac8s, Ad7c, Ah7c, As7c, Ac7d, Ac7h, Ac7s, Ad6c, Ah6c, As6c, Ac6d, Ac6h, Ac6s, Ad5c, Ah5c, As5c, Ac5d, Ac5h, Ac5s, Ad4c, Ah4c, As4c, Ac4d, Ac4h, Ac4s, Ad3c, Ah3c, As3c, Ac3d, Ac3h, Ac3s, Ad2c, Ah2c, As2c, Ac2d, Ac2h, Ac2s, KdQc, KhQc, KsQc, KcQd, KcQh, KcQs, KdJc, KhJc, KsJc, KcJd, KcJh, KcJs, KdTc, KhTc, KsTc, KcTd, KcTh, KcTs, Kd9c, Kh9c, Ks9c, Kc9d, Kc9h, Kc9s, Kd8c, Kh8c, Ks8c, Kc8d, Kc8h, Kc8s, Kd7c, Kh7c, Ks7c, Kc7d, Kc7h, Kc7s, Kd6c, Kh6c, Ks6c, Kc6d, Kc6h, Kc6s, Kd5c, Kh5c, Ks5c, Kc5d, Kc5h, Kc5s, Kd4c, Kh4c, Ks4c, Kc4d, Kc4h, Kc4s, Kd3c, Kh3c, Ks3c, Kc3d, Kc3h, Kc3s, Kd2c, Kh2c, Ks2c, Kc2d, Kc2h, Kc2s, QdJc, QhJc, QsJc, QcJd, QcJh, QcJs, QdTc, QhTc, QsTc, QcTd, QcTh, QcTs, Qd9c, Qh9c, Qs9c, Qc9d, Qc9h, Qc9s, Qd8c, Qh8c, Qs8c, Qc8d, Qc8h, Qc8s, Qd7c, Qh7c, Qs7c, Qc7d, Qc7h, Qc7s, Qd6c, Qh6c, Qs6c, Qc6d, Qc6h, Qc6s, Qd5c, Qh5c, Qs5c, Qc5d, Qc5h, Qc5s, Qd4c, Qh4c, Qs4c, Qc4d, Qc4h, Qc4s, Qd3c, Qh3c, Qs3c, Qc3d, Qc3h, Qc3s, Qd2c, Qh2c, Qs2c, Qc2d, Qc2h, Qc2s, JdTc, JhTc, JsTc, JcTd, JcTh, JcTs, Jd9c, Jh9c, Js9c, Jc9d, Jc9h, Jc9s, Jd8c, Jh8c, Js8c, Jc8d, Jc8h, Jc8s, Jd7c, Jh7c, Js7c, Jc7d, Jc7h, Jc7s, Jd6c, Jh6c, Js6c, Jc6d, Jc6h, Jc6s, Jd5c, Jh5c, Js5c, Jc5d, Jc5h, Jc5s, Jd4c, Jh4c, Js4c, Jc4d, Jc4h, Jc4s, Jd3c, Jh3c, Js3c, Jc3d, Jc3h, Jc3s, Jd2c, Jh2c, Js2c, Jc2d, Jc2h, Jc2s

I gave maniac flushes and SB has two combos of QQ and we still have enough to call one time. If he then call our equity will get much higher since its very likely that he has that QQ.

That BB's hand range is uncomfortable to look at.

We have a read that he's a Maniac but we need to curtail our assumptions. What we see is a massive deviation from the norm is required to get us 12% EQ vs bet/raise ranges on the river.

We also assume SB never raises more without A♣. Calling two and then folding for 1 more bet would be closer to 4% equity required to call, and against a 4bet its about 8%. The pot is way bigger then and we need less equity.

Between (1) Folding at an estimated 7.5:1 call (13.5% EQ required, smaller pot) or (2) calling two at 10:1 immediate and then folding vs more action, I think a larger number of difficult assumptions are required for the latter.

Either way, cheers for the debate. We can see its a close decision and so its not clearly weak to fold here but its also not clearly a mistake to call.