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PLO10 AAKK crazy flop fold.

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mattusko
Joined: 06.02.2010

Hello, What do you think about this play?

Preflop: standart 3b with position.

Flop:
I fold because: CO looks like a better at these stakes, meybe little bit passive so i didnt expect something crazy from him. I think he didn't bet 2/3 pair hand at this flop. I also think that he would not bet 2pair+FD or set+FD so big, almost potbet. So i think he had QT**-> our equity is 36.25%

bad/very bad play?:)

Poker Stars $10.00 Pot Limit Omaha Hi - 6 players - View hand 2184634
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $11.80 - VPIP: 23, PFR: 20, 3B: 8, AF: 3.0, Hands: 832
BB: $19.42 - VPIP: 98, PFR: 7, 3B: 12, AF: 0.5, Hands: 55
UTG: $10.00 - VPIP: 26, PFR: 11, 3B: 0, AF: 2.8, Hands: 89
MP: $29.68 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 13, 3B: 3, AF: 3.1, Hands: 227
CO: $8.00 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 14, 3B: 3, AF: 4.1, Hands: 282
Hero (BTN): $10.17 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 2.9, Hands: 84266

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K♥ A :club: A :spade: K♦
2 folds, CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $1.05, 1 fold, BB calls $0.95, CO calls $0.75

Flop: ($3.20) J♦ 9♦ K♠ (3 players)
BB checks, CO bets $3.00, Hero folds, BB folds

Final Pot: $3.20
CO wins $3.06
(Rake: $0.14)

Thanks


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8 replies
JonikoP
Joined: 15.05.2010

I think you have to stack off with top set in a 3-bet pot. Especially against a guy who started the hand with less than 100bb.

He's not that passive (AF 4.1) and could easily be shoving 2 pairs, worse sets, pair plus flush draw, etc.

Worse case scenario, you still have ~30% equity.


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mattusko
Joined: 06.02.2010

but i am not sure about 2pairs/pair+fd... U betpot with 2pair/1pair+FD or low/middle set OOP, where you have to fold after reis??. because i dont, especialy he probably hasnt top two pair.

edit: Especially against a guy who started the hand with less than 100bb. -> tihis is problem not advantage i guess.


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CPallo
Joined: 12.04.2012

No one who is in somewhat in the game and knows how to play won't go all the way to the end on this board with 2 pairs, rarely even with sets, unless they have nutflush-draw and maybe GSSD there, too. In this case it's unlikely, coz you block so many combos of them with AAKK.

You can't stack-off here as you are likely to face nuts (or 2nd nuts) here on a 3-bet pot as opponents too often put you on AAxx at 3-bet pots on micros. On the contary, there's so many QJTx, J9Tx etc. wraps here that might have a made hand, sometimes he has set of J's and set of 9's that he donks to prevent you from checking-behind with AAxx.

I could call one shot here, if we know that this guy could pretend to have a straight on such a spot, but there's no way I'm shoving this flop. It's multiway and we are only hoping to hit a full-house, so we are most-likely way behind. I don't mind folding at all here, due to those things I mentioned and the fact that he isn't 100bb deep.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

I think this is an easy stackoff. There are so many hands you beat, and the spr is low... Easy shove imo


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RuiBouquet
Joined: 21.03.2008

Easy shove imo too...


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Ribbo
Joined: 25.06.2010

You absolutely have to shove here.

If CO has a straight the pot will be $17 and you will have to invest $7, so you will be losing $1 at most. However if CO has anything else that he might donk here (like a nut flush draw or KJ or JJ or JT9x) then you are making a terrible mistake.

Gotta call it off.


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mattusko
Joined: 06.02.2010

TY guys,

so if i understand, there are only few possibilities where i can make a good fold by folding top set on the Flop.

f.e: JQK in one suit, where i dont have FD and OESD/gutShot

am i right?


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JonikoP
Joined: 15.05.2010

It comes down to SPR - stack to pot ratio - on the flop. Basically the lower the stack to pot ratio (i.e. the less money you have in your stack compared to the money in the pot) the lighter you need to stack off.

To take a couple of examples:

Example 1 - High SPR

Single raised pot, 200bb deep - You raise in the cut off and get called by the BTN, the blinds fold.

- Here, there are 7.5bbs in the pot and you have 197bbs in your stack. The SPR is 197/7.5= 26
- This is a very high SPR and, in simple terms, you don't really want to stack off without the nuts (and preferably a redraw) or a huge draw to the nuts.

Example 2 - Low SPR

3-bet pot, 80bb deep - You raise in the cut off and get 3-bet by the BTN, the blinds fold.

- Here there are 22.5bbs in the pot and you have an effective stack of 68.5 bbs in your stack. The SPR is 68.5/22.5= 3
- This is a low SPR and you should be prepared ot stack off much lighter.


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