NL50 - AKo in UTG

Hey Vasili,

Can you also include his turn and river AFq/Agg%?

Also, it would be useful to see his 3bet against UTG to determine a better range he could have.

There are a couple of things to talk about here. Let's start with how the hand was played by you:

- when you cbet you are basically trying to make him eventually fold a lot of his air and his middle pairs. For this you need to also check his WTSD and W$SD and see if he eventually folds or is more likely to call you down.

- how does he play generally vs cbets given his preflop range (that's why I asked for vs UTG 3bet) and your own preflop and cbetting range. You can consider bet/3bet, bet/call and also check/raising. This is a type of board a UTG range won't cbet too often against a solid opponent because that would make his checking range too weak so you can and should check some hands to call and some hands to raise. The NFD with overs seems like a solid option to check/raise and but max pressure on all his one pair hands, possibly on his low sets as well since he never has the nuts.

The blocker value of As is also good but it mostly helps your own equity. It's good that it blocks flush combos from his range though ofc.

Originally posted by EmanuelC16
Hey Vasili,

Can you also include his turn and river AFq/Agg%?

Also, it would be useful to see his 3bet against UTG to determine a better range he could have.

There are a couple of things to talk about here. Let's start with how the hand was played by you:

- when you cbet you are basically trying to make him eventually fold a lot of his air and his middle pairs. For this you need to also check his WTSD and and W$SD and see if he eventually folds or is more likely to call you down.

Doesn't the initial cbet work either way for him though in this spot?
If villain is station then you often hit one of many outs on T or R to keep barreling and valuetown him, or give up if you miss. Or villain has low wtsd and 2nd barrel often does the trick and all is well.

If we barrel, we don't just want villain to fold his floats.

If he doesn't fold midpairs and we hit a scare card, it's no good.. the idea is we have actual outs like you also said, but on J and Q we can also barrel to make midpairs fold against a low WTSD, with a lot better success.

The cbet vs check consideration is more about the second part of what I wrote though, regarding the necessity to have a checking range from UTG here and how to construct it.

3b vs utg = 7%; 3b vs mp = 3%
turn aggfreq = river aggfreq = 27%
wtsd 27%, w$sd 56, w$wsf 45
turn fold to cbet = 13% (15"), river fold to cbet = 100%(3)

i'm still torn between cbetting and checking ...
i think i would start with ck/calling; though i might be results oriented because he had a set.

OK, given the stats it's OK to cbet and barrel when we get called on certain runouts.

Against a raise though we can consider playing purely for odds.. I don't think we have much FE since his range is mostly flushes and sets, not enough draws.

What is his bet vs missed cbet? In that case you can c/r and go from there.

This board is very good for bluffing because typically it is perfectly suited to coldcallers range. The difference between good and bad regs is the good one will raise here with equity, and bad with almost any2. Calling is still getting us into tough spot on turn and river, we really need to know opponent very well because whole hand we are oop.
For me typically it is 3bet or fold situation. And I don't think we can check-call here because it will always mean we don't have strong hand.

And it is still hard to continue with an overpair without fd.

his bet ip is 55%

if we ck/c here and hit a pair or flush he will most likely bluff again ...

so i like both, ck/calling and bet/bet/bet (this was my plan before i got raised) vs this player ...
but still the question is what should i do against this big raise ?

thanks for all your replies

edit:
my thought is that i should fold because he doesn't have a lot of hands like KQ,KJ,QJ with a spade so he is rarely semibluffing. he cc OTB 10% ... that's the main thing that worries me...

Yeah, you can fold here.. You don't get the pot odds. I think his range is too strong so we can only play for pot odds so if we get very good odds to draw to our flush.

With 55% bet IP you can definitely consider check/raising though. He bets vs missed cbets with air so you get dead money from that plus you can rep stronger, pressure his range more and bluff him off more hands with your equity. If he 3bets, you play for the odds only again.