Originally posted by Kaitz20
If villain called your c-bet on the turn, then it is likely that he holds Ax which he float you on the flop. I'd also give up my hand on the river, you might be ahead against KcJc or KcQc and a lot of times you get a free showdown.
If we can check out the hand I only win vs the 2 hands you mentioned, which are very unlikely, so basically I'll never win at a showdown.
A 3rd barrel from my side (remember I opened from MP position) should give me some credibility for AK/AQ or even a 99/aa set.
We know he likes to call flop cbets a lot: so his range at flop: 9x , pairs, overcards, + some random crap.
He calls cbet on turn on which he knows is a perfect 2nd barrel card for me: range: 9x, Ax, and some suited
cards. A set/trips is unlikely after his 2nd call on a drawwy board seen his 3 AF.
A river bet from my side shows pretty much strenght no? He'll have a hard decision holding Ax and he will defenately have to fold his 9x now as that will only beat a complete bluff.
So I have almost NONE showdownvalue (maybe 5% vs KJ/KQ :club:), I have to bet to pick up the pot right? So what amount to bet?
Betting small (1/3 pot) to like it look like a small valuebet, but creating almost no fold equity (reverse thinking?) ?
Betting (50-60% pot) valuebet creating more fold equity?
Or betting 75-80% to like it look like a big valuebet, creating a lot of foldequity?