Very important question is 55% win profit in long run?

http://www.ixl.com/math/kindergarten

should be 20$ profit on 100 games if im not mistaken...

"I have 55% heads up win but I play 5$ heads up sng's actually buy in is 5.30$ every game I pay 30 cent fee, is it profitable if I win 55% of the time?" - thirit2

Hello. Vuciitis, one of us is way off and it's probably me because it's late and I'm tired and prone to mistakes right now.

%55 win rate [ assuming 1 loss = ($5.30) and 1 win = $9.70 ]:

55 wins and 45 losses ...

55 Wins = $533.50 ...

45 Losses = ($238.50).

$533.50 - $238.50 = $295.00 profit out after 100 matches, so it's like making about $2.95 per HUSnG.

I think I may have screwed up the original inputs because I double and triple checked the math itself. Where am I going wrong in the procedure above?

Originally posted by toholdem
"I have 55% heads up win but I play 5$ heads up sng's actually buy in is 5.30$ every game I pay 30 cent fee, is it profitable if I win 55% of the time?" - thirit2

Hello. Vuciitis, one of us is way off and it's probably me because it's late and I'm tired and prone to mistakes right now.

%55 win rate [ assuming 1 loss = ($5.30) and 1 win = $9.70 ]:

55 wins and 45 losses ...

55 Wins = $533.50 ...

45 Losses = ($238.50).

$533.50 - $238.50 = $295.00 profit out after 100 matches, so it's like making about $2.95 per HUSnG.

I think I may have screwed up the original inputs because I double and triple checked the math itself. Where am I going wrong in the procedure above?

1x win = $10 (2x $5) = $4.70 profit < 2x .30c rake is not in prize pool.

100 games @ 55% = $258.50 - $238.50 = $20 profit = $0.20 per game = 3.77% ROI

1) Winrate = 55%
2) 5$+0.3$ buyin assumed

EV = (0.55 * 4.7$ ) + [0.45 * (-5.3$)] = 2.585$ - 2.385$ = 0.2$

This means you make 0.2$ per SNG

By the way, does anyone have any winrates/ROIs for different HU turbo stakes?

Thanks !

Thanks jonnyjm, for that ROI calculation and illustrating my mistake too. I can't believe I missed something that easy; I should've seen right off the bat that 1 win equals $4.70 instead of $9.70.

unshpe - don't quote me on it because I just remember seeing it in passing, but I read of ROI's for HU turbos of around %3-%6. I can't remember which stakes they were for though, as I was looking for regular speed winrates at the time.

HUSNG is the same as DONs in terms of winrate. You either win or you lose.

Here's a link to a DoN ROI chart which works just as well for HUSNGs - you work out your ROI based on winrate and rake percentage.

6% rake, which is what 30 cents is, would give you 3.8% ROI with a 55% winrate.