Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.
Hero (BTN): $12.05 (120.5 bb)
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $29.15 (291.5 bb)
UTG: $17.51 (175.1 bb)
MP: $4.55 (45.5 bb)
CO: $6.39 (63.9 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with 3
3
UTG raises to $0.30, MP calls $0.30, CO folds, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds
Flop: ($1.05) 4 2
T (3 players)
UTG checks, MP checks, Hero bets $0.60
UTG = 23/15 over 183 hands. cb flop 73% but not sure about multiway.
MP = 42/8 over 12 hands, assuming he's just some random fish with a weak range.
preflop i think set mining is fine since i have implied odds vs a UTG range and i'll probably get all of the fish's stack at least.. any reason to fold 22-55 to a raise pre?
on this flop, despite UTG's high cbet% i don't expect light cbets - especially multiway. when he checks im pretty sure he's giving up because he cbets all his FDs, all his Tx, all his overpairs and probably even his 77-99 or something. also when the fish doesnt bet IP i think he's pretty weak too but i'm not 100% sure about this because fish might not understand the need to get direct value from a hand on this texture.
i quite like stabbing in this spot and expect it to work a ton... question is what would you say about UTG's range if he called this flop bet? also what would you say about MPs range if he called the bet instead of UTG?
my thinking is that if UTG calls here he's really capped to some pairs 99 and below and he's just calling without a decent plan for the turn in which case i'll plan to barrel most turns. i don't expect FDs to play this way, at least from a guy with stats like this.
if MP calls, my assumption is he can have Tx, 4x (maybe?) 55-99, FDs and some raggedy SDs so his range is obviously wider than the reg's. would you still barrel a lot of turns vs the fish despite this or is it better to just give up once called by the fish?
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