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[Closed] NL25 SSS:AJ reraised

4 Posts
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Termi8r
Joined: 04.02.2008
PokerStrategist

Should have folded but this guy is very loose and has a wide range. But still a fold imo. Comments?

Known players:
[tg]Position_Stack:hands/vp$ip/RaisePreflop/AF/WTS/ORL/BBvsSteal/W$SD;Hero$5.00:///////;BU$17.60:48/43 /19 /3.5/32 /0 /50 /83 ;[/tg]
0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.58 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J♣, A♥
UTG+1 calls $0.25, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $1.25, 3 folds, BU raises to $5.00, 3 folds, Hero raises to $5.00 (All-In), BU gets uncalled bet back..

Final Pot: $10.60


3 replies

1. fold AJo from middle position
2. fold after raise to 5.00$. Left stack size:your raise ratio is 3:1 and a fold according to SHC.

Although opponents stats are loose, I think he's got a hand. Otherwise he would only call your raise and wait to see flop and won't re-raise. From my experience at this level players are quite straight forward.

By calling his re-raise you are wasting your money, imo.


veriz
Joined: 20.07.2008
BlackMember

Why did you even raise with AJ on MP and after the reraise insta fold.


098799
Joined: 23.07.2007
Oldschool Grinder

First, no sample imo. 48 hands can only give us liiitle hint about how he's going to play. His actual pfr can vary from 8 to 30 I guess (at least statistics say it can). But assuming his pfr is like 20 and he's going to 3bet with 1/3 of his pfr (which is another assumption which can be wrong) you're getting about 33% equity, about the amount you need here. It looks like break-even case.

But... our assumptions aren't surely even close to correct. Also, we didn't include the fact whether or not does he adjust to shortstackers. I think fold is surely a move with less variance and possibly bigger expected value, so it's fine.


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