[SH] NL50, AK, 3barr

hi

based on his stats alone I think it's very optimistic to expect him to fold much here. I think the Flop cbet is fine mostly because you have backdoors. The Turn cbet is way too loose and when he calls his range is mostly QX and flushes. I don't think he ever folds KQ and AQ on the river given his F to R cbet and WTSD.

Maybe you want to share your findings here and I can check if they are accurate or are overly optimistic.

Thanks

General thought is Q-high boards are suited to callers range, whether he calls blind vs steal or steal vs 3bet. That's why I think better to check flop.
I don't know how he is capabe to fold his 88, TT-JJ vs the turn bet, but with a club he anyway will not fold.
But also his club calling range on the turn is still balanced with Qx which are very frequent. I don't think bluff is good.

Originally posted by pokerferrer
General thought is Q-high boards are suited to callers range, whether he calls blind vs steal or steal vs 3bet. That's why I think better to check flop.

this is partially true but
1. Hero has spades so he can barrel more turns
2. CO opens really wide at 29%
3. He folds very little at 53% vs 3bets

this means that his range isn't that tight, so he's gonna have enough suited connectors and suited aces which will just fold vs the flop cbet

But we are ahead vs connectors on the flop. And there is no better hands which will fold vs flop bet.

better hands aren't folding to one bet, but this is why you have backdoors for barreling later streets.

connectors and suited aces are worse but you suggested check/folding which means that we just get bluffed out by those type of hands.

Okay I kinda see the point. I went from flop to turn to river, with pretty much the same range. He does however fold around 50% on flop, so unless he floats like 100% of his preflop calling range, it is pretty optimistic of me to barrel here, right?

You two also got some interesting discussin going on, right now I like both of your arguments and I am a bit unsure if cbetting on Qh toned boards is good or not w AK.

Spoiler;

QXX is good for callers of 3bets and 4bets but you must always take villain's entire range into consideration, based on stats and positions.

1. Tight calling ranges are mostly made up of AQ/KQs/mid pairs. Loose ranges can have more suited connectors and aces. Vs a looser range a cbet could be better
2. Backdoors are great for balancing your betting frequencies

I think A:sK:s is a clear bet in this situation, but with the other AK combos without backdoor flush draws it's much closer.