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AA fold on river

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cozacu
Joined: 14.02.2010

$0.05/$0.10 No Limit Holdem
Prima
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
cozacu (UTG) ($10) 100bb
CO ($20.04) 200bb
BTN ($9.12) 91bb
SB ($10) 100bb
BB ($11.74) 117bb

Pre-Flop: ($0.15, 5 players) cozacu is UTG A♠ A♦
cozacu raises to $0.30, 2 folds, SB calls $0.25, 1 fold

Flop: 5♦ 8♠ 3♣ ($0.65, 2 players)
SB checks, cozacu bets $0.45, SB raises to $1.05, cozacu calls $0.60

Turn: 6♣ ($2.30, 2 players)
SB bets $2, cozacu calls $2

River: 6♠ ($6.30, 2 players)
SB goes all-in $6.65, cozacu says "oh ffs", cozacu folds

Final Pot: $12.95

SB wins $13.11 (net +$3.16)

cozacu lost $2.90

Villain 15/10 af 2.0 cbet 65 ftcbet 47 wtsd 27 3.1k hands 4.7 3bet

Flop = call because I think he might value raise 99+ here.

Turn= call expecting him to bet again 99+

River= fold because I don't think he`s shipping the rest here with 99-JJ, and I expect him to 3bet QQ-KK PF, so he`s having pretty much just sets and Maybe 67s.

What do you think?


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

hi

You really think that people raise 99/TT here vs a UTG raiser? I don't think so. Your hand is not a complete bluff catcher (sometimes he'll have QQ/KK) but it's certainly close on the river.

If you put him exclusively on sets then this is an easy fold. If you think he has the occasional KK/QQ/air then you need to call down. I'm in favour of calling down though you'll find yourself losing here pretty often but you only need to win 33% of the time in order to justify a call here.

thanks


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