Nl200 44

hi

Flop: Many regs would flat AX here but there are many others who would also raise AX here. Don't agree that he never has AX here.

River: What's your range here?

67s (4)
65s (3)
66 (6)
A5s/A4s/A3s (9)
AA (6 combos)
28 straight combos

KK/55/44/33 (12)
12 set combos

QQ/JJ/TT (18)
99/88/77 (18)
36 1pair combos

Looks like a fold to me with 44. I think you have more than enough straights in your range to continue.

According to GTO we need to defend a bit more than 50% right? 50% here would be 38 combos or all straights + all sets other than 2 combos of 33. But in reality we need to defend even more since this bet is less than PSB so let's say all sets then.

BUT then on the other hand I think this may be one of many spots where we just bleed money if we defend according to GTO. I was actually surprised that 44 just fell pretty much in the middle of our range here, would expected it be much higher up.

So yeah given everything you say I think you have convinced me that this is indeed a fold

Where would you draw the line btw between calling and folding? Just straights, even if that means we are defending a bit less than 50%? And in general how do you approach these situations OTR? Just stick to some sort of semi-GTO strategy and defend a bit less than GTO suggests (assuming most villains won't bluff enough anyway on these stakes?

i think the cutoff line is either AX or KK. I think this is a spot where people just bluff way less than they should so you should know the GTO frequencies, and adjust your range downwards (tightening up cos you are going to be facing straights really often)