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Fold AA?

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Stedyeddy
Joined: 28.02.2011

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.50(BB) Replayer
SB ($64.54)
BB ($39.25)
UTG ($53.29)
UTG+1 ($50)
CO ($50)
Hero ($17.50)

Dealt to Hero A♠ A♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1.50, SB calls $1.25, fold

FLOP ($3.50) Q♦ 8♦ 2♥

SB checks, Hero bets $1.80, SB calls $1.80

TURN ($7.10) Q♦ 8♦ 2♥ 9♣

SB checks, Hero bets $4.75, SB raises to $61.24 (AI), Hero calls $9.45 (AI)

RIVER ($35.50) Q♦ 8♦ 2♥ 9♣ K♦

Oponent:

66/14 in 40 hands.

Waht is your opinion ? i got a b/f turn? if he call, i got a AI river?


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4 replies

Hello,

I think this is fine unless you really expect him to raise only two pairs+.

I believe that he could play like this with Qx or with a hand like T8 or so which now has a pair+draw.

Nice hand.

Best,
Plamen


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Stedyeddy
Joined: 28.02.2011

Ty for the evaluation kumu. How can I know when he raice draws + pairs, or just raice better hands.
Whitch stats say me thath.


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Well, basically there isn't a stat that shows you that.

You can determine this by taking a look at his AFq for example - if it is on the higher side (lets say 40%) there is quite a good probability that he is raising lighter than two pair+ most of the times, so in spots like this calling down will be fine.

Of course, those are quite relative thoughts as there are different situations, but in order to motivate my reasoning for calling here is just because:
- villain looks fishy
- villain isn't super passive
- villain is OOP so he might not be fancy just calling those OOP.

PS: If you have any questions please press the "Advice the judge to have a second look" button, just to make sure that I can come back and see it because I don't go along and reread all the evaluated hands always.


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Stedyeddy
Joined: 28.02.2011

Good, good. Thnks agane for the advice and the evaluation.


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