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88 nl25sh

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confidant91
Joined: 02.04.2011

hello,

Party Poker $25.00 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 2246540
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

UTG: $25.00 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3,3, Hands: 444
MP: $43.22 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 23, 3B: 10, AF: 3,4, Hands: 304
CO: $20.42 - VPIP: 56, PFR: 6, 3B: 0, AF: 3,0, Hands: 36
BTN: $35.45 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 7, 3B: 3, AF: 1,6, Hands: 377
SB: $50.23 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 23, 3B: 9, AF: 3,6, Hands: 237
Hero (BB): $25.80 - VPIP: 22, PFR: 19, 3B: 8, AF: 2,9, Hands: 68315

Pre Flop: ($0.35) Hero is BB with 8 :spade: 8 :club:
UTG raises to $0.75, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.60) 4 :heart: 7 :heart: 5 :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $1.01, Hero calls $1.01

Turn: ($3.62) J :club: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $2.29, Hero calls $2.29

River: ($8.20) J :diamond: (2 players)
Hero checks, UTG bets $5.25, Hero calls $5.25

villain pones 14% utg, cbet:66/60/100

would you call him down here? i was not sure about river since another J is probably not a best card to bluff. But there is lot of missed draws...


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Hi confidant91,

I think that this spot is close.

His value range has Jx, QQ+ and we need to be good about 28% of the time.

If we were to do some simple range combinations calculations we have:

Overpairs: 18 combos
Sets: 9 combos
Jx: Assuming AJ, KJ, QJs we have at most 18 combos

Total: 45 value combos

Since we need to be good 28% of the time that means that he needs to have at least 18 bluff combos for us to break even.

Unless he opens all suited aces and bluffs with all of them on top of all the other heart broadways and hands like 66 we can't really call. And even if we do it's not that profitable.


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