[Closed] 52o $11 MTT

I might be wrong but I dont think you should play this hand at all. I think the chance of winning the hand is almost miniscule, you are facing a player who raised UTG, so he must have something so at best you are chance of winning this hand is around 30%.

Additionally, you are the big blind in this hand, so you have quite a few hands after this to find a better spot to get your money in. You are not so hopelessly short-stacked that you are out of the running so I dont see why you would call or shove here.

won a big tourney with only 2 BB and within 17 hands was chip leader winning over 2K

but you still dont have to call this but should be about 35% to win against ramdom hand if calling , personaly would fold

The problem was of course we never got first-in due to lots of raising at the table especially in late position.

Still I don't think UTG is raising here loosely and in the best case scenario has AK/AQ. More likely is a higher pocket pair against which we are crushed. I really don't give us much more than a 20/80 here. So even though we lose 1/3rd of our stack by folding I still prefer waiting for a slightly better hand to put it all-in with.

Hi all,

#2 to SoyCD.

The problem was, within the next orbit we were blinded out, the very next hand we loose another 48k from out stack. UTG was pretty loose, and I dont think AQ+ is his range at all.

Lets say we wait another 3 hands, Thats 64k less in our stack. If we wait 6 hands then thats 88k less in our stack. So the sooner we make a move the better. Even if we wait a few hands, then double up, we still have a bad stack, and we need another double up.

I think making the -ev call is the better option to go deep. As waiting for a better hand will just criple us anyway, and only double us up to still a small stack.

I think we should wait for a better spot, even if that better spot means pushing with anything when we're UTG next orbit. Here we just don't have the odds to push IMO.

But that makes me question something, given hero's short stack here, wouldn't pushing from UTG one hand before this one with any two cards better than wait to get blinded out?

I'm not an experienced tournament player and I didn't make it ITM yesterday but if I'm gonna get a shot at first place I can't be waiting for a hand forever and let the blinds put me out of the tournament right?

Originally posted by Faye6891
I think we should wait for a better spot, even if that better spot means pushing with anything when we're UTG next orbit. Here we just don't have the odds to push IMO.

But that makes me question something, given hero's short stack here, wouldn't pushing from UTG one hand before this one with any two cards better than wait to get blinded out?

I'm not an experienced tournament player and I didn't make it ITM yesterday but if I'm gonna get a shot at first place I can't be waiting for a hand forever and let the blinds put me out of the tournament right?

If I remember correctly the hand before we had 83o or something akin to that. In UTG+1 - UTG had raised and we had another crap hand. Basically we hadn't managed to get first-in in a long time even though we had been wanting to push for quite a while.

Considering the action at the table so far I don't think UTG is raising that loosely. Every time we folded to pushes/raises the people turned over good cards and I didnt feel the table too be that loose in respect to the blind levels. People we only raising pockets or facecards.

I would have taken my chances with 83o pushing first-in UTG, it's certainly better than calling with 52o.

Anyway, hero will just survive one more orbit and even if he gets a decent hand in the next orbit and manages to double up, we're still crippled and looking for another hand to push... again.

IMO Hero shouldn't have let his stack get too short, but let's say that really no opportunity whatsoever showed up for a move, I'd still take my chances with 83o than get blinded out next orbit.

Originally posted by Faye6891
I would have taken my chances with 83o pushing first-in UTG, it's certainly better than calling with 52o.

83 UTG is not a better hand than 52 in the bb, in this situation.

Let me try to explain how I see both cases:

52o in the BB:
First, let's suppose UTG bet more than you had because he's not folding to your push so, if I haven't miscalculated anything, you need to put in 197,693 in chips to call and there's 461,693 in the pot so you're getting around 2.3-to-1 odds. That justifies a call against two overcards, but you're doomed against a PP. How often will you be against overcards or PP? Difficult to know, anyway, I'd fold.

83o UTG:
Even though the table's been quite loose I think you got some FE here, so you can just push and take down a 184,000 pot.
If you push and you do get called by someone other than the blinds you're risking 285,693 to win a 469,693 pot, that gives you 1.6-to-1, screwed against a PP, breaking even against high cards, and that's certainly not better than the odds you get by calling the 52o but you do get some FE by pushing first-in UTG that you don't get by calling in the BB.

And if I'm gonna play a crappy hand like 83o or 52o I'd like to have some chance of taking the pot down without anyone contesting it.

But your FE is not that great either because the BB would be getting nice odds to call given your short stack.

Anyway, both cases are marginal, my opinion is that hero just waited too long to make a move and his stack just got too small, so I'd rather move first-in UTG before the blinds reach me and leave me really crippled. But since he waited for the blinds to get to him I'd rather fold the 52o and push first-in if with any hand in the next orbit or pray to the poker gods that I get dealt something decent. ♦

But what do I know? I finished in 3719th place when my TT didn't hold against the other guy's AK.

EDIT: Oh, and since I'm reading Harrington right now I'm gonna take this moment to say that after the blinds go through, hero will be, as defined by Harrington, a pokerwraith.

83o UTG, on this table we held absolutely no FE what-so-ever. Therefore imo its better to see what hand/situation we are in when in the BB.

Call w 52o imo

If you say utg is fairly loose, good chance of just overs - therefore 40:60 ish and you need to start gambling w your very short stack at this stage to build and make a run at the big $ ♦

Imo This is definitely a better spot to get it in than to make a crying push w 83o utg - with a much shorter stack.

‘If the doors of perception were cleansed everything would appear to man as it is - infinite.” William Blake

Originally posted by cannell555
83o UTG, on this table we held absolutely no FE what-so-ever. Therefore imo its better to see what hand/situation we are in when in the BB.

OK, if you say so. But anyway, as I said, I think both situations are pretty marginal... you've made your point and calling with 52o is better. But I think the big mistake here was to let the stack get so small.

TBH, the guy didn't have a choice. He was totally card dead, I mean seriously. He couldn't have made a move any sooner, as he was never 1st in the pot.

Originally posted by cannell555
TBH, the guy didn't have a choice. He was totally card dead, I mean seriously. He couldn't have made a move any sooner, as he was never 1st in the pot.

Well, every orbit he was at least once first in the pot.

IMO, with the blinds and antes this high I'd shove first-in UTG very light if my stack is below 900,000 , and I'd shove first-in UTG with almost anything if my stack is around 550,000 or less. I'd like to take my chances while I still have some FE and if I get called, a double up will let me breath for while.

By waiting too long to push you lose FE when you do push and you may end up getting a very good hand and double up, but then you still can't even breath because your stack is still too small.

That's my opinion, I really don't have a lot of tournament experience though, so I might be saying a lot of crap here. ♦

I think calling would be a mistake. I am sure there will be more profitable situations within the next orbit. At least you might get the chance to call something like 64s or J8o allin which is better than 52o (even with good odds). Perhaps you might even get a "monster" like KJo to coldcall with or any A, K, most Q, J, most suitedgapconnectors, PP, best offsuitedconnectors to push first in with. It's still much better to get first in then calling because there is always a chance like 10% all opponents fold.

Originally posted by Thiemo1981
At least you might get the chance to call something like 64s or J8o allin which is better than 52o (even with good odds).

I really disagree with you here, if he's got the odds to call, then he should call. Waiting is not going to help at all.
IMO he's already waited too long (and I really don't get tired of saying that!! lol ♦)

a simple way to evaluate MTT decisions like this in a program like an icm calculator online or sngwizard is to just put the payout as 1st place 100%, rest 0%

then put in the blinds, antes, stacks etc.

as such, we can see that a call is pretty hugely unprofitable, if we take UTG's raise as a "nash" push (assuming he pushes 13.6% of hands, or 33+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ J9s+ T9s).

we can make a slightly -EV call, but i think this is too -$EV to do with 52o.

(our range as per nash equilibrium is 73.8%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J6o+ T2s+ T6o+ 92s+ 96o+ 82s+ 85o+ 73s+ 75o+ 62s+ 65o 52s+ 54o 43s )

Originally posted by Faye6891

Originally posted by Thiemo1981
At least you might get the chance to call something like 64s or J8o allin which is better than 52o (even with good odds).

I really disagree with you here, if he's got the odds to call, then he should call. Waiting is not going to help at all.
IMO he's already waited too long (and I really don't get tired of saying that!! lol ♦)

I agree with having to do something sooner - but the problem was simply that it was next to impossible. We had gotten this far pretty much without any good cards - by simply stealing/raising with trash throughout the entire tournament - so we were certainly not afraid to use the chances when given them. The problem was just that the blinds started getting high really quickly and after having lost 2 steals in a row we hit card-dead town. Being in UTG was more or less the only time we ever managed to be first-in and there we usually held very very bad hands. To make matters worse the blinds increased just seconds before this hand..

Basically hero didn't really have much fault in getting this short - previous spots were simply just as -EV as this one.