nl25 JTs

Hi W,

Why overbet on the river?

I almost sure that UTG doesn't have a set or a straight, his range capped maximum AA. So he surely should fold to overbet two streets unless he has a read on me.
I think if he called an overbet once, he could call a normal bet on river, so I need to look at maximum strenght - insta all in on river?

I would not put AA in his range.. I think you are basically playing vs medium overpairs. I don't think it's necessary to overbet against 88-JJ.

Your line should still be profitable but idk if overbetting is worth it when comparing to smaller bets. It's a thin like and we don't have any clear info to compare it but put yourself in his spot with 88-JJ and facing bet/bet or facing overbet/overbet. How different would you actually play?

IMO I would very often called by overpairs, I think AA could be possible also about ~ 2-5%.
He snap called me on turn so I thought it would be hard to make him fold with up to pot size bet. My concerned is that could he have a rivered flush enough time to make me -ev?

Labas!

I think it's just too much risk to try to fold out 66/88/99 (he would probably cbet TT+). Also, you don't rep much on turn or river besides A4s which isn't often in your range.

Fishes will call you light just because.
Thinking players feel see through that (it depends on your image as well though).

I'd just check down in this spot and find more profitable spots to bluff.

Cheers,
David

sveikas Deividai,
I think we rep monsters (sets, straight, flush).
And yes he would cbet TT+ most of the time but there still would be some time that he would take passive line (there are many players with their strange gameplan)
In his shoes I wouldn't risk my stack with middle pairs and even with AA in single raised 3 way pot with many small cards and a straight, flush possible.

I think you are a bit overambitious here and risking your stack unnecessarily but I do see your point in overbetting. I just disagree that you represent a wide range of value hands and that your opponent will fold way more often than to normal sized bets (both on flop and turn) to make it a lot more profitable. We don't have a clear image of his range though so we cannot really decide which is most definitely better. In play, your decision could've been the best, I don't know any other hand or anything else about the player, just that he opened UTG and has a full stack.

what size do you recomend? on turn and river?

I think 2.25 on the turn and 5.5 on the river are going to show good profit as well. Like I mentioned before, I cannot say exactly it's more profitable than this overbet but given what I've seen, risking your whole stack to bluff him off a few midpairs and Ace highs is a bit excessive when that range should fold to smaller bets a swell.