NL25 SH Zoom K8 bluffcatch

hey speed why no cbet on the flop? i expect some average range here to be something like this: TT-22, AJs-A7s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo which misses a lot, depending on how this guy plays OOP. if he can fold A high here then i think we can definitely cbet and take the pot down a ton, but even if he floats OOP we can still barrel him off so i think he folds enough to justify a cbet.

on this river i don't really know what i'd do so i guess i'll have to wait for a judge. personally i would probably call it in game with the reasoning that if he was bluffing on the turn then he can continue these on the J which is a semi-scarecard... but on the other hand it's hard to say that an unknown will actually use scarecards to bluff on.

since he is unknown i think there are some arguments to folding this...
- people dont seem to follow through with their bluffs too often
- people tend to use scarecards a little less than they should
- when you call his bet on the turn you look like you have SDV, yet he still bets the river and it isn't exactly huge -- looks sort of like a value bet to me.

i think it does look like a decent spot to fold...

why no cbet on the flop? i expect some average range here to be something like this: TT-22, AJs-A7s, K9s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s, 87s, AJo-A9o, KJo+, QJo which misses a lot, depending on how this guy plays OOP. if he can fold A high here then i think we can definitely cbet and take the pot down a ton, but even if he floats OOP we can still barrel him off so i think he folds enough to justify a cbet.

becasue so far he looks on tighter side, which means he has good overcards and PPs which I doubd that fold very ofen on such flop. I mean I really dont expect A high to fold to a 2/3 bet (in these positions)

Hi

Flop: I agree with your check here - He has Ace highs and pocket pairs really often due to the strength of his PF range and thus I think it's good to give up here. Maybe his range is wider here though, because of the min-raise preflop.

Turn: as played, easy snap call down.

Turn: as played, easy snap call down.

you meant both turn and river call?

but if we cbet 2/3 pot it only needs to work ~40% of the time and i think he can easily be folding more than this when he has just K high or even Q high. not only that but if he does call with his PPs or A high then the board is very likely to bring overs which we can continue on which is pretty great. its just 42 hands so although there is a tendency leaning towards a tight range should we not still treat him as relatively unknown? and also there's the minraise too..

cbet probably is not terrible with intention of barreling. BUt if he calls A highs and board brings over cards, those can hit his range than too.

But if I have more equity, like backdoor FD then I more likely cbet. But one thing I dont like is that he is so tight and less chance that 28/25 guy would run so bad and have such stats. But I am not claiming that those are real stats of course. I just dont want to risk when I am not really sure if he is loose enough preflop.

Originally posted by SPeedFANat1c

Turn: as played, easy snap call down.

you meant both turn and river call?

yes

@drdunne: I suggest you try mapping out villain's range and checking out your FE. 12/10 is insanely tight though, so I'm only putting him on broadways and PP here.