Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
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Hero (MP): $26.15 (104.6 bb)
CO: $13.88 (55.5 bb)
BTN: $27.15 (108.6 bb)
SB: $49.84 (199.4 bb)
BB: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
Preflop: Hero is MP with T
9
Hero raises to $0.85, CO calls $0.85, 3 folds
Flop: ($2.05) 6
9
5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.50, CO raises to $3.25, Hero raises to $25.30, CO calls $9.78
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CO was 34/12/1 over 183
FtCB: F - 36, T - 33
AG% - 35 (26/46/47)
Notes:
Minraise = nuts
FLOP
I haven't noticed the note I have about his minraise being the nuts.
2 questions:
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1. Assuming there's no note - what hands do I 3bet shove in this spot (I figured it should be AA or better)?
I think bad players overvalue overpairs, so I wouldn't expect him to raise with anything worse than TT (like A9).
So T:c9:c is dead vs all the value hands villain can have.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 20.10% 20.04% 0.06% { Tc9c }
CO 79.90% 79.84% 0.06% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
TT does even worse (it has less outs vs overpairs).
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 18.00% 16.99% 1.01% { TT }
CO 82.00% 80.99% 1.01% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
Even KK-QQ do not fair well vs villain's range.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 42.90% 41.33% 1.58% { KK-QQ }
CO 57.10% 55.52% 1.58% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
So only AA or better is a thin value 3bet.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 59.18% 57.53% 1.66% { AA }
CO 40.82% 39.16% 1.66% { 99+, 66-55, 87s, 65s, AsKs, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
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2. Assuming I saw the note - how does it change the way I play my made hands? (I would obviously call with all draws given the odds and lack of FE). Assuming my reasoning is correct the only clear value 3bet is 55 or better. So in majority of cases I would just call vs this villain with my strongest part of the range.
It's likely now that he doesn't raise with JJ-TT or with naked flush draws so AA is not good enough to 3bet for value anymore.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 46.98% 44.74% 2.24% { AA }
CO 53.02% 50.78% 2.24% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
65s is closer to a value shove.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 50.89% 48.52% 2.37% { 65s }
CO 49.11% 46.75% 2.37% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
However, even the weakest set is an easy value shove.
Board: 9s6d5s
Equity Win Tie
MP3 63.60% 62.89% 0.70% { 55 }
CO 36.40% 35.70% 0.70% { QQ+, 99, 66-55, 87s, 65s, As8s, As7s, As6s, 7s6s }
