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Nl10-77

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Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $22.40 (224 bb)
SB: $10.15 (101.5 bb)
BB: $9.91 (99.1 bb)
UTG+1: $10 (100 bb)
UTG+2: $5.58 (55.8 bb)
Hero (MP1): $22.85 (228.5 bb)
MP2: $12.19 (121.9 bb)
MP3: $11.56 (115.6 bb)
CO: $5 (50 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 7 7
UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.30, Hero calls $0.30, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $1.20, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

Flop: ($3.75) 3 7 5 (3 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks, MP3 bets $2, UTG+2 folds, Hero raises to $4, MP3 raises to $10.36, Hero calls $6.36

Turn: ($24.47) K (2 players)
River: ($24.47) A (2 players)

Results:

Spoiler

$24.47 pot ($1.10 rake)
Final Board: 3 7 5 K A
UTG+2 mucked and lost (-$1.20 net)
Hero showed 7 7 and lost (-$11.56 net)
MP3 showed A A and won $23.37 ($11.81 net)

My only question would be the preflop play.Was i right to set mine here, considering i was the last to close the action? I think i do have the correct odds including the dead money in the pot,ya?

Dead money in pot preflop = $2.85
Villain 1 stack effective stack at flop = $10.36
Villain 2 effective stack at flop = $4.38

So effectively, i am calling 90 cent to win a combined stack of 17.59 which equate to around 19.5:1 odds. I am being optimistic to include both villain stack.

Let's say i include villain 1 stack only, i am getting odds of around 14.6:1 which is equally reasonable to set mine.

Am i correct in my calculations?


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3 replies

Hi TheKing7,

Preflop: Given one villain is short and that you still have to call 9 BB while being OOP I don't think we should call this.

Since we are OOP and MP3 squeezes versus early positions we can't expect to win much postflop unless we hit (and as you have seen if you hit you can still lose).

So for example you lose 9 x 7 which is 63 BB just for calling and folding 7 times out of 8 (when you don't hit a set).

And your calculations are a bit off simply because you are assuming that you always win villain 1 stack (for example) which as you see it's not the case. Sometimes you lose, and sometimes the flop is A73 and he folds his KK before a lot of money goes in.


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Hi

If the short stacker was full stack, would my calculations be correct here?


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Originally posted by TheKing7
Hi

If the short stacker was full stack, would my calculations be correct here?

The deeper you are the more money you can win so having them both deeper would be better. It's still a borderline spot given the huge raise of the PFR.

You will only ever win a % of their effective stacks (long term), so as the effective stacks get bigger your % gets bigger too.


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