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NL100 K7s BUbb FD vs c/r flop

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double2
Joined: 04.11.2008

Poker Stars, $0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $105.56 (105.6 bb)
SB: $122.79 (122.8 bb)
BB: $361.12 (361.1 bb)
MP: $97 (97 bb)
CO: $100 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with 7 K
2 folds, Hero raises to $2.25, SB folds, BB calls $1.25

Flop: ($5) 9 J 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $3, BB raises to $10, Hero calls $7

Turn: ($25) 5 (2 players)
BB bets $18

20k hands
25/21/9.1/27
call $ vs BU open 15%
raise cbet flop OOP 23%
bet turn after flop raise 73%
Agg freq 61/52/36
WWSF 54%
W$SD 45%

Should I call again and bet river vs missed or just ship it right here?


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jules97
Joined: 10.06.2012

23% x 15% = 3.5% = combos 46

Lets assume he's someone balanced and his value to bluff ration is 1:2, therefore 16 value combos, 30 bluff combos.

This board hits his cold calling range a little harder than a wide BTN opening range so he may have a slightly wider raisnig range.

This is the cold calling range I gave him.

Value Raises

Sets = 99, 22 = 6 combos
AJs = 3 combos
AJo = 9 combos
J9s = 2 combos

Total value combos = 20 = 2.4%

Now lets find some bluff raises.

All gutshots = KTo, KTs, 87s = 20 combos
All A5s fds and backdoor fds = 7 combos
88 = 3 ccombos
98s = 3 combos
T9s = 3 combos

Total bluff combos = 39

Equity of K7s verse this raising range on the flop is 45%.

Turn

His barreling range seems fairly normal allowing for a little random deviaton.
Let's assume he is barreling all his value combos again and on the turn he cuts his bluffs down to a 1 to 1 ratio compared to his value bets.

So lets say he keeps

KTs, 4 combos
All the nut flushes 7 combos
78s, 4 combos
and I suppose we'll say he barrels T9s again, 3 combos

Total combos 18

Equity here of K7s verse this range is 28% and I'd guess would fall pretty clsoe to the bottom of your range here. So a fold or a raise.

I suppose it's not a bad hand to raise, because it will get a lot of those Ace high fd's that beat you to fold and has a little bit of equity verse those hands that are already crushing you.


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