Originally posted by Dragar
I am ready to fold my AA at any point when I feel some hit two pairs or so like you said. It will be visible by his bets on the flop, river or so. Also chances of him acctually getting a 2 pair isnt that high.
Chance of hitting 2 pair is around 2%. For example if you have 4 callers multiply that with 4 and you get 8%. And thats only hitting 2 pair. Add chance of hitting trips 1.35%(x4=5,4%), add full house hitting chance 0.09%(x4 = 0,36%), then some straight and flush possibilities - it all adds up. Of course you can hit too but when you hit its kinda obvious and there will be much less action. If you hit straight or flush then it will be 4 cards on board, if you hit trips or quads it will be A high board which wont get you much action in most cases.
Anyway, i feel it wont be possible to convince you that limping aces is bad play therefore i wont do it. Play as you like.
Just one last idea for thoughts: if you dont get action on aces when raising, perhaps fix of this problem is not limping aces, but raising more other cards. You know if you are running stats like 15/4 its kinda easy to put you on hand what you are raising. If you play 15/12 - go figure...
Edit:
Just decided to play with numbers. On one site i found following "The chance of making 2 pair or better with JT suited 21.48%". Opponents limping in with suited connectors seem reasonable. Lets assume your opponents are reasonable. And to get chance of at least one hitting we cant just multiply. Take the opposite its 79,52% for each of them that they wont hit 2 pair or better. Lets assume that there are just 3 limpers. 0,7952 * 0,7952 * 0,7952 = 0,5028. So there is 50% chance that none of limpers will make 2 pair or better. Now the opposite of course is that at least one will make 2 pair or better. So if i did my math right then chance that someone will hit 2pair or better with 3 limpers when they each hold suited connector and dont share outs is 50%. All limpers rarely will have those connectors in real life but you get the idea.
And just wow, i got more into this. Put some hands into online equity calculator:
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As Ac 368287 43.29 481424 56.59 957 0.11 0.433
8h 7h 163398 19.21 686313 80.68 957 0.11 0.192
Ks Js 117274 13.79 732437 86.10 957 0.11 0.138
5s 5d 135267 15.90 714444 83.99 957 0.11 0.159
Ts 3c 65485 7.70 784226 92.19 957 0.11 0.077
So if we get 3 callers + BB with random hand our AA win in like 43% cases by river. Usually AA have like 80% chance of winning. So if someone likes sacrificing so much equity to sometimes win a couple more BBs (not neccessarily as sometimes we win more if our raise gets called) - its fine with me.
Ofc all the things i showed was made with big assumption - all hands get to river. Not a real life situation. Anyway i wasnt doing this for you, but for myself and maybe someone who might find this interesting. Wanted to see numbers behind this and even tho they are very approximate as i cant take into consideration all factors of real play i feel like i got my answer.