[SH] NL50 Q8o

Hi

River raise could be too thin esp when u are strongly repping the nts here.

I suggest u come up with a river betting range for him ( just the value hands) and see how far ahead u are vs that range.

Also consoder what hands are calling the raise and what hands are folding.

His value betting range on the river (including Qx barrels) could be something like this (67 combos):

Board: 9♣8♠4♦ 2♣ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     44.78%  44.78%   0.00% { QQ+, 99-88, 44, Q9s+, JTs, 98s, AcQc, KcQc, Qc7c, Q9o+, JTo, 98o }
BB     55.22%  55.22%   0.00% { Qh8c }

If he is bet/folding all 1pair hands, then he would continue with the following range:

Board: 9♣8♠4♦ 2♣ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     83.33%  83.33%   0.00% { QQ, 99-88, 44, Q9s, JTs, 98s, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
BB     16.67%  16.67%   0.00% { Qh8c }

So even if he (sometimes) herocalls with hands like KK+/AcQc, river valueraise seems to be way too thin... I'm behind even if he always calls KK+/AcQc:

Board: 9♣8♠4♦ 2♣ Q♦
       Equity     Win     Tie
SB     61.22%  61.22%   0.00% { QQ+, 99-88, 44, Q9s, JTs, 98s, AcQc, Q9o, JTo, 98o }
BB     38.78%  38.78%   0.00% { Qh8c }

yup, good that you can answer your own question.

When you have 55% equity only vs his value range, I think it should be fairly obvious that you cannot raise.