KJs call 3b IP

Hey Nevrex,

Standard option is probably to call flop and fold turn to 2nd barrel.

Vs aggro guy I think calling turn is reasonable here and folding on any heart or Ace river, but calling a shove on the rest.

Would shove vs aggro opponent on turn be good? Or flop raise/call? he can call shove with fd or a weaker pair plus fd.

Can you explain please why would you fold on A river?

I think that A river is actually one of the best for us to bluff catch (besides K or J).
If blanks comes on river we are imo almost always beaten if villian shoves (how can he ever expect FE on river blank, when draws missed, and Hero cant have busted draw because he would play it raise flop or turn). So I think on blank river when we call, we win only if villian is on tilt, or too spewy.

On the other hand, if Ax comes, I don't expect many villians to shove for value with Ax on so ugly board, but rather to bluff catch (maybe with AK). Villian surely don't have QQ, KK, so we don't lose vs that on A river. But, A on river would be the best card for villian to bluff with some busted draw, or maybe turn some PP like 99, TT into bluff. What do you think?

The reason why I would not call on Ace river is simply because there is a decent amount of A:h combos in villains range. Not sure if we have enough info to say that he won't bet an ace for value. But yeah, call down if you are convinced he never bets Ace.

Raise flop line or jam turn line are possibly +EV but essentially just protection bets. They may make the hand easier to play but not necessarily the highest EV at least in a theoretical sense.

Thanks for explanations.

I wanted to say, my population based read is that people dont light bet even in 3bet pot with Ax on so ugly board (at least I super rarely see it). So I would do it also vs uknown.

If you say, I would call on blank rivers it is also only a population based read (that you expect him to bluff, while I dont expect average player to bluff). So we both have just a population based read.

Do you have a population based reads from playing many hands in NL100, or you hear it from other people?

Based on population reads I do not think calling 3 streets here will ever be profitable in the long run vs unknown.

I would only call down if I had reason to believe opponent was very aggressive. Standard line based on population read should to be to fold turn. Even a flop fold wouldn't be so bad when hands like A:hQ:d are actually flipping with you + plenty of turn cards where you have to fold the best hand on the turn.