FR50 QJ river nuts

Heya,

I would generally triple barrel here, not c/r river. Once someone goes so often to showdown it doesn't make sense to not bet the nuts without a read he is also likely to stab vs a check. You probably don't have such a read since it's very hard to get.

As played, I would raise big, might even shove but I would tank for a bit, not snap shove so it looks like a shove vs the small bet, not a planned check/shove.

My thinking about this river was:

1. I bet, but how much can I really bet? I probably get called 75% of the time if I bet around half pot or less. There's 1% chance I get raised if I bet small. If I bet anything bigger than 1/2 pot I think his range is too weak to call.

2. I check. His range has many Ax, but also some rivered 2pair hands that will not raise a bet, but will most definitely bet if I check. I was thinking that if he bets something like 1/2 pot, it's going to be very hard for him to fold, I've seen fish snap call river check raises with a lot of crap. And he is never ever folding two pair on that river to a check-shove. The only risk I'm taking is against some Ax that won't bet river if checked to. Or will bet.... 3$

3. The raise. My first thought was: "Ok, I get snap called if I raise anything up to 1/2 pot", but then I realized he could level himself into calling because of the small bet. I ended up shoving after tanking some but not too much.

The only danger with the assumption of him not calling often if you bet than 1/2 or him betting Ax is that 'What if you are wrong?'. I have no idea what he would do but I do find one part that is likely incorrect. In 1. you say he folds often and then in 2. you say he rivers 2pair quite often.. 2pair doesn't fold to > 1/2 pot bet so he can't fold often if he also often rivers 2pair. Apart from that, you can't read what he will do without having an actual read.