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[Closed] $1/$2 FR : Pot odds on Turn

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Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO posts a big blind (1 SB)

Pre Flop: (2.5 SB) Hero is MP1 with A♥ J♠
3 folds, Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls

Flop: (5.5 SB) 8♥ 7♦ 9♥ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero calls

Turn: (4.75 BB) K♣ (2 players)
BB bets, Hero folds

VPIP/PFR/TAF/WTSD%/Hands

BB : 21/11/1.26/35/203

Ok preflop and flop very standard i feel.

Ok so on turn lets say i dont believe he has the king there most of the time cos of his flop check raise. So i got 3 Aces, 3 Jacks, anf 4 Tens.

So i got 10 unclean outs.

Ok so now is where i need some help in discounting. I mean we gotta consider flush draw, my J no good if he has a Ten or a King.

If i discount for flush cards and assume my J is good then i got 7 outs.
If i further discount the J i got 5 outs.

Also gotta consider there are time i am drawing to a split or dead.

Getting 5.75 to 1 on my money so i need just shy of 7 outs.

Is my above thinking correct and is the fold turn good ?


6 replies

I think the hand is ok as played. We cant give ourselfs 10 clean outs here since we could be beat allready and as you allready stated the Jh aint the best card that could hit here. Also hands like A9/A8/A7 are possible.

I myself am no hero in discounting outs so for this ill mark this thread for another judge who can try to explain the principle of discounting outs more in-depth.


A definite leak in my game at the mo is discounting outs, thanks for comments and look forward to hearing from a "discounting expert" :)


Hi Evilpopcorn,

your opponent seems to be a TAG so he is able to play aggressive with draws. On this flop there are a lot possible draws so additionally to your outs you have if he really has a made hand you might be still ahead.
The turn seems to be an ugly card but it won't hit his check/raise range very often (K9, K8 or K7 maybe).
So you still have 3 ace outs and 4 gutshot outs. (Sometimes the J is good too as if you are behind he won't have a draw that often.) But as he sometimes has twopair or better so that we draw to only 4 or less outs I think it's fine zo ignore the J outs and just don't discount the gutshot and ace outs.
7 outs are enough to continue for 5,75:1. Even if we discount a little bit more to 6 outs we need "just" 6,8:1. This 1 BB will often be won if we improve. I wouldn't give myself more than 1 implied BB as sometimes we improve to the second best hand. This would normally annulate our implied potodds but as we often gain 2 BB if we improve to the straight we can go with 1 implied BB all toghether.

This here might be a bit too advanced so please be careful to not get to showdownbound:

I would calldown even without the right odds as in fact we are often enough against draws and we can easily find a fold if some drawcompleting cards hit on the river so this turncall doesn't mean that we have to call the river as well. Bad card against which a fold is fine are: Any :heart: and 6.
This is even less than I expected as the T and J where we normally would fold as well iprove our hand here.
If he is as passive as the stats say he might give up a lot bluffs so that we even win a lot pots unimproved (he checks and we check behind). This might make us to fold unimproved except against a K, 9, 8 or 7 (as these cards can't improve him).


Thanks for a great reply.

Any suggestions on where i can practice discoutning outs and applying imlied odds to scenarios. Articles etc maybe ?


This article here migth help you with the odds and outs. I can't find one for implied and reverse implied odds right now. Is there anyone who knows that?

http://www.pokerstrategy.com/strategy/fixed-limit/173/


Yeah have read this article. Was hoping for something a bit more advanced and example orientated.