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THoughtprocess of my opponent: what is he thinking?

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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

This is a serious question, I am very curious to get a better understanding in the thoughtprocesses (even though some might argue, there arent any but even though it sounds funny, I don't really fully agree with that statement) of my micro limit plo opponents...can someone please look at this example and tell me: what was he thinking? Please think of an answer before reading the results and then after this, look at the results and think back what he was thinking according to you. The reason I ask this question is that I feel one of my biggest leaks, especially since I study the game day and night almost, is giving my opponents too much credit as I find it harder to realise "how someone could make such a play" and therefore assume, that he isn't (mirror thinking which of course is incorrect because why would people play like you..). I hope people understand what I mean. Some advice is greatly appreciated. So far, I have just taken to marking opponents and takingnotes after they went to showdown.

Regards,

FDM

PokerStars - $0.05 PL Hi (6 max) - Omaha Hi - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 69.6 BB (VPIP: 18.20, PFR: 11.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.07, Hands: 2,657)
Hero (SB): 109 BB
BB: 299 BB (VPIP: 25.82, PFR: 12.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.99, Hands: 311)
UTG: 77 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 1)
CO: 212.4 BB (VPIP: 23.15, PFR: 11.79, 3Bet Preflop: 2.53, Hands: 1,174)

Hero posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has T♦ Q♥ K♣ J♣

UTG calls 1 BB, fold, fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, UTG calls 2 BB

Flop: (7 BB, 2 players) T♣ 2♠ 8♠
Hero bets 3 BB, UTG calls 3 BB

Turn: (13 BB, 2 players) J♦
Hero bets 4 BB, UTG calls 4 BB

River: (21 BB, 2 players) T♥
Hero bets 15 BB, UTG raises to 65.2 BB, Hero raises to 99 BB and is all-in, UTG calls 1.8 BB and is all-in

Spoiler

Hero shows T♦ Q♥ K♣ J♣ (Full House, Tens full of Jacks) (Pre 64%, Flop 88%, Turn 97%)
UTG shows J♥ 3♥ Q♠ 6♥ (Two Pair, Jacks and Tens) (Pre 36%, Flop 12%, Turn 3%)
Hero wins 149 BB


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4 replies
MrTrocks
Joined: 25.03.2006

first of all its pritty hard to tell u what a special opponents thinks in this spot. It could be that he plays more table and this hand was influence by an suckout or an other hand.

In this case he could think that u have a busted fd. The reason is ure very small bet on the turn. It could be that u want to draw cheap to the flushdraw (btw ure bet is way to small here)

also ure opponent looks like an fish (limp call this hand)

u bet small on flop very small on turn and then bet big river

a nother thought process might be that he tries to bluff u atr when the fd missed. and after u rr he just thinks "wtf he has it but for 2bb i want to know what he had"

.


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

first of all your sizing is really bad here. 2nd of all, that's what might make him think he has fe when he raises, cause he thinks that all draws missed and your hand looks like a draw.

Don't expect this to happen too often tough. Calling here with anything worse than a strong fh is usually burning money.

Regards,

Skod


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FlyingDutchm1n
Joined: 21.08.2012

Yeah I wanted to say I didnt like my sizing here, I hope you can help me in these situations...can you tell me how you would have bet here and do you consider the J on the turn to be a scary card here or not...I always get confused as on the flop I put my opponent on a straight/or flushdraw you know in his calling range, and then the straight comes and then in the end I found out he had neither the flush nor the straightdraw...

also I went from bet small bet small to big which is just stupid I know but it stems from having difficulties with these kind of spots as I just assume my opponent could/would have a draw here himself and as I said before, I must admit I am really bad with putting my opponents on hands in these kind of situations and dont know how to improve this...

any advice please because I tend to play these pots way too passively, but also feel weird when I bet stronger on turn and get raised, and then I feel oh shit must be a straight and then in these kind of situations where straights and flushes are possible I tend to not know how to bet.

I hope you can answer skod would be of great help.

Thank you, FDM


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

something first... When you want a hand reviewed again, please click the "advise coach to see another look" box in the bottom corner of your screen when you make a reply. If you don't do that, i might overlook your second question because i have a different interface than you guys do.

About the sizings. First of all, it's a good thing you know your opponent is on a draw. Why? Because it means you have the best hand, so you have to bet big to protect your hand and charge draws. If you bet so small, villain is getting the correct price to draw with almost any hand he has, while knowing you are weak at the same time. I would bet 5bb on the flop, and with the pot now 17 i would bet fold turn 13-14. If you get raised on this turn it's the straight 95% of the time, so it's a fold unless the raise is small giving you the correct odds to draw to a boat or better straight.

Hope this helps,

Skod


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