Nl4 77

Hey hvard92,

Preflop fine.

Flop is close, I think both checking and betting are fine here.

The only downside to your strategy is that there are just not a huge amounts of draws on this texture. Mainly gutshots. Occasionally villain will pick up a heart draw but not all that often.

There is a possibility your line is +EV since we may fold out better hands, but overall we might just be over-complicating things when it's fine to just check back flop and give up.

Is flop close

I looked at this in equilab and i think i estimated it pretty good (i thought)

Flop is:

K :diamond:9 :heart:3

I lose to:

QQ-99,33,AKs,A9s,K8s+,AKo,A9o,KTo+

and beat:

QTs+,JTs,QTo+,JTo

I forgot to say that the guy plays fit/fold 6/6 times

With JJ's, i think i have 1 street of value since i think he will fold worse than top pair to a 2nd bet.

Still not changed your mind?

Hey Hvard92,

Maybe you misunderstood....

I'm not saying betting will be -EV, I'm just saying it's close as to whether the best play is to bet or check.

Betting we are primarily turning a hand with showdown value into a bluff. This is not a big deal necessarily but there won't be a lot of good turn cards to barrel with a hand like 77. We can't bet purely for value because we only have 26% equity vs the range you assigned villain for continuing with.

Checking back is an option but the hand is a little weak to make a good bluffcatcher.

So I'm not saying betting is bad, I'm just saying it's difficult to tell whether betting is actually better than checking.

I think you misunderstood =P Or maybe i misinformed you.

I think my bets where terrible for several reasons:

I ment: Why could i bet here (at all) for value with 77 when i'm so far behind?

I estimated 88's and TT's but it's not much difference. With JJ's in this spot, i barely beat 50%, so i think i could valuebet flop once and check turn since i think this guy wouldn't call turn with worse than top pair.

So what i don't get is why should i bet for value with 77 when i don't beat 50% of his flop> callingrange? But i could bet as a bluff to get hands like A4s, 78s, hands that missed etc. to fold i think...

Originally posted by hvard92
So what i don't get is why should i bet for value with 77 when i don't beat 50% of his flop> callingrange? But i could bet as a bluff to get hands like A4s, 78s, hands that missed etc. to fold i think...

Exactly. I was agreeing with this in my last post. 77 is clearly not a value bet.

However, assuming villain folds enough we can profitably bet any 2 cards on this flop, and 77 is no exception.

If we bet it's not for value, it's essentially a bluff. And yeah, not many worse hands fold, but it's nice to protect ourselves vs any 2 overs which have 25% equity vs us even though they are folding. So that's the betting argument, for protection.

The checking argument is that we have showdown value and we can bluff with stuff that has no showdown value so we may aswell just check 77 back and hope to reach showdown.

Yea, to fold out his equity even tho it is worse hands. So we bet as a bluff + protection at the same time. Makes sense.

or checking to reach showdown. Not much difference. I guess that what you ment with close, so i was the one who misunderstood x)

But i still think i would prefer to try take down the pot than checking and hope he is not betting.