QTs vs shove river

Hi mlatasrb

What are his fold to 3-bet stats? What range do you expect him to show up with on the flop (postflop).

And how's your experience with overbets at these limits? Precisely overbet shoves?

This should be villain dependent here but I tend towards a fold since people don't overbet bluff enough.

or MP 22%, fold to 3bet 57% from MP, total fold to 3b 68%.
4bets 18%.

He has on flop probably around 8% range, which I expect to be all PP and suited broadways.

He has 12 combos of nuts, and I dont think he would shove AQ, KQ, and he shoudnt have many slowplayed QQ, AK combos.
I could hope that he tries to fold out my perceived weak range with AJs, maybe slowplayed AK or turn some low PP into bluff, so it seems that with his range he doesnt have many hands which he could bluff on river?

Since I dont have reads on him about his bluff overbets, and I have weak bluff catcher, I can conclude that I should bluff catch only AQ in this spot given pot odds and action?

He has some hands that he can turn into a bluff but that would imply that he plans to turn them over two streets (turn/river).There are some backdoors and pairs like you said.

But I agree that generally this is too light as most people don't overbet bluff enough and in this spot he has to overbet bluff a LOT for us to show a profit.

How many AQ do we realistically even have on the river? After you checked the flop.

AQ I 3bet standard vs MP and UTG and I check on Qxx all of Qx.

Originally posted by mlatasrb
AQ I 3bet standard vs MP and UTG and I check on Qxx all of Qx.

Yes, but I meant in his eyes (sry it wasn't obvious in my reply). Most people will expect you to bet AQ on the flop imo, at least most of them.