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10 NL - AA on ugly board

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ferrari1f
Joined: 06.11.2013

Poker Stars $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 4 players - View hand 2367400
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $25.68 - VPIP: 20, PFR: 15, 3B: 4, AF: 3,5, Hands: 102
Hero (BTN): $11.41 - VPIP: 19, PFR: 15, 3B: 6, AF: 3,6, Hands: 193101
SB: $11.88 - VPIP: 16, PFR: 15, 3B: 14, AF: 0,0, Hands: 81
BB: $9.22 - VPIP: 27, PFR: 13, 3B: 5, AF: 1,5, Hands: 75

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A♠ A♦
CO raises to $0.30, Hero raises to $0.80, 2 folds, CO calls $0.50

Flop: ($1.75) K♠ 8♣ K♦ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $0.80, CO calls $0.80

Turn: ($3.35) 8♥ (2 players)
CO checks, Hero checks

River: ($3.35) 5♣ (2 players)
CO bets $1.60, Hero folds

Final Pot: $3.35
CO wins $3.20
(Rake: $0.15)

What to do against this river bet ?

First of all, preflop I have to raise to 90 cents instead of 80. That's probably a misclick on my side. Flop is not too bad, so I decide to bet, still expecting weaker hands to call and definitely not folding to 1 bet (pairs like 99-JJ, maybe QQ too). Don't really know if villain has a lot of 8's in his range here, like 89 or 78. Kings possibly too, although I think not much more than maybe KQ from time to time (and I am even not sure about this)... I also think that he has some floats (Ace highs) in his range...

On the turn, weaker pairs still could call, but I decided to pot control here, and planning to value bet the river when checked to me, still expecting 88+ to call, or maybe even A high given my line.

With that in mind, I didn't believe that villain would bet without a strong hand here (which is a K or an 8). I would expect him to check/call his 88+ and maybe even ace-high. So when he bets, I folded. Would he be able to do that with A high and as a bluff ? What's the likelihood versus pot odds here ? I am getting a quite good price too, only have to be right 33 % of the time to break-even.

Some advice on this hand ?

:f_cool:


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w34z3l
Joined: 03.08.2009

Hey ferrari1f,

Preflop fine. There is actually nothing wrong with the sizing.

Flop cbet is fine.

Turn check back is fine. Hard to extract value from worse here.

It's certainly possible villain bluffs river here. I think at these limits it's safer to assume villain is not bluffing with a high enough frequency that we have a call due to pot-odds. Folding is fine.


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ferrari1f
Joined: 06.11.2013

Originally posted by w34z3l
Preflop fine. There is actually nothing wrong with the sizing.

Definitely nothing wrong, but I tend to make it 3x IP and 3x-3.5x-4x OOP. I'd rather like to see myself 3x'ing pre-flop since it helps a bit when he 4-bets (needs to be a bit bigger too).


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