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15$ 6 max bubble, Hero BB as CL calling ss 5bb ?

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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012

This one may be simple (think I made a mistake here today) but I want to ask you guys anyways.

SB is unknown player but pretty aggressive. 27 hands 54/46 vpip/pfr, his SB steal is 100% (total 6 hands). These are all stats just for bubble!
BTN is reg, 292 hands 29/24 folding BB to steal (in next hand assuming I fold this) 80% (calling 16% 3 betting 4%).
Looking at this hand after I played it I would fold K2o as CL here and continue to abuse bubble and mid stack reg BVB but my question is this:

As CL for 5bb are you calling whole nash range here?
Assuming opponent shoves 74.0%, 22+ Qx+ J2s+ J5o+ T2s+ T6o+ 93s+ 96o+ 84s+ 86o+ 73s+ 75o+ 63s+ 65o 52s+ 54o 43s . Now from stats we see that he shoved all hands so far from SB so we can even expect wider range then 74% (if not ATC).
We should call vs nash range : 46.9%, 22+ Kx+ Q3s+ Q6o+ J7s+ J9o+ T8s+ T9o 98s
K2o is 0.05 + ev vs that range.

Appreciate it

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $200(BB) Replayer
SB ($1,009)
Hero ($4,876)
BTN ($3,115)

Dealt to Hero 2♥ K♦

fold, SB raises to $1,009 (AI), Hero calls $809

FLOP ($2,018) 3♣ 6♥ 5♥

TURN ($2,018) 3♣ 6♥ 5♥ A♥

RIVER ($2,018) 3♣ 6♥ 5♥ A♥ 8♠

Spoiler

SB shows 8♥ Q♦ (Pre 43%, Flop 27.5%, Turn 29.5%)Hero shows 2♥ K♦ (Pre 57%, Flop 72.5%, Turn 70.5%)SB wins $2,018


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4 replies
ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Yeah I would take most +EV spots here. Folding less than +0.1% is ok, but more than that would start to be questionable. Even if we lose this one we can still put huge ICM pressure on other reg if he is not calling too loose. E.g. after losing this hand I believe we still would have ATC (or very close) shove spot on nash versus BB in next hand. Or if he plays tight versus minraise then we want to go more with small ball minraise style.

K2o is still close. Villain seems very active, but sample is obviously very small. So I would not adjust by calling wider than nash unless some hand has gone to showdown that might indicate that. If you have reason to believe he is shoving like 80% or more then K2o is mandatory call.


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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012

So in vacuum Ghaleon, lets assume that we have no reads , are you calling this or not?
In my experience, SS tend to shove tighter than nash into CL bvb as they are afraid CL will wake up or simply call them wider. If this assumption is correct then K2o becomes big -ev call isn't that correct? So I guess what I am asking is, in vacuum wouldn't fold be better play here ? (since 27 hands in bubble is not enough to put opponent on 75% shoving range BVB) ?
Thanks in advance for your answers


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ghaleon
Joined: 17.10.2007

Well I checked this hand with hrc. Seems like breakeven spot is if villain shoves around 64.1%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q4o+ J2s+ J7o+ T4s+ T7o+ 95s+ 97o+ 84s+ 86o+ 74s+ 76o 64s+ 53s+ 43s. That was with FGS calculation.

With only ICM he has to go as tight as 52.3%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q7o+ J5s+ J8o+ T6s+ T8o+ 96s+ 98o 86s+ 75s+ 65s 54s to make it breakeven.

So from those results I would go for call as I think he is more likely shoving more than 60% I doubt this would ever be big -EV call versus active looking player like him.


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IvicaIliev77
Joined: 31.05.2012