Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.51)
BB ($5.12)
UTG ($2.11)
UTG+1 ($8.81)
CO ($6.51)
Hero ($5.67)
Dealt to Hero A♦ 3♠ 8♠ A♠
fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.17, fold, BB raises to $0.53, Hero raises to $1.61, BB calls $1.08
FLOP ($3.24) J♦ 8♥ Q♥
BB checks, Hero checks
TURN ($3.24) J♦ 8♥ Q♥ K♣
BB bets $3.11, Hero folds
BB wins $3.11
Opp: 29/23/11% 3bet after 150 hands, AF 2.3
Pre- standard
Flop: I've watched Skodljiviec's video series where he says that in a 4bet pot when SPR is ~1 we should always stackoff and I'm using this advice. However, I still have trouble believing that it is true in every situation. Here's the simulation in PPT:
ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
2,164,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Q♥8♥J♦
A8s3sAd 19.68% (425,935 wins, 0 ties)
KQJT,QJT9,T987,JT98,9876,KKJT,AQJT,AKQT 80.32% (1,738,865 wins, 0 ties)
I can't really see my opponent having anything less than that here. No matter how optimistic I am I can't see myself having more than 20% equity here and I don't believe I really have any FE against such a strong range, so I think cbetting here is an overplay and I should just x/b and only call the turn if i catch some extra equity.
I'm guessing my way of thinking is wrong here so I'm hoping that somebody will be able to clear that up for me