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AA83ss 4bet terrible flop, should i cbet?

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Mack0
Joined: 20.10.2010

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
PL Omaha $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($5.51)
BB ($5.12)
UTG ($2.11)
UTG+1 ($8.81)
CO ($6.51)
Hero ($5.67)

Dealt to Hero A♦ 3♠ 8♠ A♠

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.17, fold, BB raises to $0.53, Hero raises to $1.61, BB calls $1.08

FLOP ($3.24) J♦ 8♥ Q♥

BB checks, Hero checks

TURN ($3.24) J♦ 8♥ Q♥ K♣

BB bets $3.11, Hero folds

BB wins $3.11

Opp: 29/23/11% 3bet after 150 hands, AF 2.3

Pre- standard

Flop: I've watched Skodljiviec's video series where he says that in a 4bet pot when SPR is ~1 we should always stackoff and I'm using this advice. However, I still have trouble believing that it is true in every situation. Here's the simulation in PPT:

ProPokerTools Omaha Hi Simulation
2,164,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: Q♥8♥J♦
A8s3sAd 19.68% (425,935 wins, 0 ties)
KQJT,QJT9,T987,JT98,9876,KKJT,AQJT,AKQT 80.32% (1,738,865 wins, 0 ties)

I can't really see my opponent having anything less than that here. No matter how optimistic I am I can't see myself having more than 20% equity here and I don't believe I really have any FE against such a strong range, so I think cbetting here is an overplay and I should just x/b and only call the turn if i catch some extra equity.

I'm guessing my way of thinking is wrong here so I'm hoping that somebody will be able to clear that up for me :)


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Skodljivec
Joined: 17.12.2011

Hi,

your thinking is wrong, because you are not adding hands like random KKxx, all the lower rundowns, all the double pairs and so on. In the long run if you jam it's unexploitable. This is one of the worst flops, and i'd think twice if i should stackoff with an SPR of 1,5 or higher. But with the SPR of 1 you have to jam here. Imagine villain seeing you c/f AA here, and next time he jams his air knowing you fold. That wouldn't be nice right? :)

Regards,

Skod


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