nl100 mid pair vs river bet

His line looks like a thin vbet with something like TT, K9, A9 and maybe 77 and 88. These hands are all reasonable given his high flop cbet and low turn cbet percentage.

Given his high river b/f I think you can turn 6x in a bluff here to get him off the hands mentioned above. Only hand you have to be really worried about is 99 but I think he is more likely to go for a higher sizing here because your range is very bluffcatcher heavy.

Hey Ciachooooo,

I don't think we can really call river here. Given read on high b/f river of villain I think x/r is fine here. Our hand is probably not good that often and we block 66 etc.

ok, if we all agree this is reasonable spot for me to x/r, how about now? would you call? he represents only 99? thoughts?

$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG Player1 ($105.42) 105bb
CO Player2 ($100) 100bb
BTN Player3 ($110.23) 110bb
SB Player4 ($129.26) 129bb
BB ciachooooo ($107.04) 107bb

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) ciachooooo is BB A♠ 6♠
2 folds, Player3 raises to $2.50, 1 fold, ciachooooo calls $1.50

Flop: 4♦ 4♣ 6♥ ($5.50, 2 players)
ciachooooo checks, Player3 bets $3.24, ciachooooo calls $3.24

Turn: J♦ ($11.98, 2 players)
ciachooooo checks, Player3 checks

River: 9♠ ($11.98, 2 players)
ciachooooo checks, Player3 bets $7.06, ciachooooo raises to $20.69, Player3 raises to $36.32, $15.63 to ciachooooo ($80.61)?

I think it depends on any reads. Would probably still fold.

Basically by calling we are assuming he never slowplays the turn. We also are assuming he would ever 3bet bluff the river like this. He's repping a narrow range of course but he might just have it unless he's the type of guy to 3bet bluff the river.

But yeah, assuming his value range is only pocket 9's and that he is capable of bluffing here reasonable frequently there is no reasons why we shouldn't call. I'm guessing we just don't have that info at this stage.

We get really good odds + he doesnt rep much but i cant see him bluffing river often enough.

Especially when we have the 75% fold to river x/r stat.