Hi, thanks for your analysis!
I agree with my hand having a worse structure, making it less comfortable to 4-bet, and the EV OTF going down quite a bit against ABB*ds hands.
My idea though is that 4-betting because of Villains extreme stats gives me auto-profit, and I want to make sure whether my play has a high enough EV or not before I consider to tweak my AK**ds range. My theory is that I should be making very solid profit with these stacksizes and that no other play is more profitable.
Here's my take on it, if you think it's worth the hassle. Warning: it will prolly take longer than usual to read and comprehend
This is clearly tl;dr if you're not interested in it.
So, my starting point for my analysis are two factors:
Over thousands of hands Villain has shown to have AA** in his 3-bet range 14% of the time. His re-steal range is 13% which means it should be somewhere around 11-15%
From that I assume that Villain has absolutely no weak AA** or medium KK** in his re-steal range.
His range should consist of:
Strong AA**
Premium KK**
ABB*ss, AB**ds
A***ds
Many ss Rundowns
All ds Rundowns
Possibly some ds Trash like KT97ds and 99T7ds (could be a very small/non-existing part of his range)
Therefore I have a roughly BE situation PF with a reasonable/good edge OTF.
-) I will not 4-bet hands like AK54ds or AK82ds because they don't help me against Rundowns and they don't often create a setup with flopped Trips.
-) I will chb on a few flops with high card of either Q, J, T since my FE against Villains range should be very low here.
-> This is the main argument for not 4-betting AK86ds and instead tightening up to AKB*ds as I'm now hitting these cards more often and I can bet for value.
-> On the other hand I play a bit better against Rundowns.
-> I can still b/f flops like J53 rb.
-) On low A** flops getting it in against AKBBds is perfectly fine. I'm often ahead of TPWK and I don't care when I'm "behind" AKQJ.
-) I'm clearly behind and often near dead on ABx flops without a K.
-) I'm sometimes ahead on Kxx flops.
-) I have proper FE on >50% of flops considering Villains re-steal/call Range.
-) On AKx flops I'm a huge favorite. If Villain ever calls or shoves his A*** or his AQ**, I'm gonna make up for much of my reverse implieds. Therefore I will bet smaller on this flop if it's very dry/paired to get action which I'd do with a flopped set as well.
Now looking at it from Villains shoes:
If I was him, because I have so few AA** in my range it's almost impossible for me to play profitably against this 4-bet from OOP, unless I fold many AB**ss hands PF which in itself is a huge mistake as I shouldn't re-steal these hands in the first place if I intend to fold them to a 4-bet.
I can outflop BU, but I can't outplay him because I have to fold so many flops considering his 4-bet range. In the long run I'll fold so many times that my good overall EQ in AI situations can't make up for it.
From my point of view, BU has an easy profit situation here.
I didn't post all these thoughts beforehand because for one it's a lot of work and also I wanted your unbiased opinion.
What do you think about my analysis?