early in 10BB Hyper Turbo- does ICM/Nash really apply?

Originally posted by MasterNobody
Hey all, I've been finding decent success grinding the Hyper Turbos on Carbon Poker recently. Generally speaking, I play tight (seems weird for those games I'm sure), usually only shoving 77+, AJ+ from early position, and adding most aces, pairs, and KQ, KJ on the button or in the SB. Usually the players, especially regs, always feel obligated to shove or even call with hands like that from any position, and any two decent cards from LP even in the first blind level. A good few times I've been able to simply fold my way to heads-up, which gives me a cash, and a chance at the win.

Now I know the reason regs are shoving J6o from the SB into my BB on the first hand is ICM and all that data that says gaining my one blind is worth the risk that I wake up with a hand and bust them. But to what extent does that math apply, in say the first level of a structure like this? Especially if there are fish at the table, I'm going to look for spots to take advantage of them and build my stack that way, rather than calling for a flip on hand #3, you know?

The root of my question is, how much does ICM apply before the bubble, especially in the context of a 10BB Hyper Turbo? Thanks.

EDIT: Oh also, what kinds of swings are common for tournaments like this? I've heard that swings as high as 100 buy-ins can be possible, but I also play Double or Nothings and regular Turbos to balance things out, so I'm not overly worried about massive swings.

My personal opinion on icm nash.

1) icm nash calcs are designed at best for a break even strategy, if you run the push fold ranges through HR, you will get a very wide push range in my opinion from utg:
example 1st hand utg range would be something like 88+ A2s+ ATo+ K9s+ KJo+ QTs+ QJo JTs - know your going to get called by a hands that dominate your range 70% of the time - ie ATS+ AJ+ KQS 99+
The best solution in this games wich i do play is take notes like you,ve never taken them before, if this means playing less tables for note taking let it be, i note everyone and write down there ranges for each bb and position, it takes time but its worth it, i,ll also asign calling ranges at the side of there notes for me to call with etc, if you have a hud then obviously it makes it easier for stealing blinds wich is important, would youshove 74s into someone that defends 50%+ or someone that defends 20%-.

Ive recently been on a 150 buy-in downswing, then went on upswing over 1k games of a 200 buy-in return.

Thanks for the reply, Shane. The Sit n Go wizard says 77+, AJ+ from UTG in the first level, but I'm sure it quickly expands to that any-ace, any-two-broadway range before too long.
I take notes when I can, and yeah, it's often very helpful. I've probably played around 100 games with some of the regs and often will adjust my strategy based on who I'm sitting with and where everyone is positioned, for example I'll play tight and wait for a good spot to double up when I know the guy on my left will open-shove his SB into me every single time. I'm glad that's a standard strategy, I think players tend to overuse the math.

As far as your swings, man that's a little scary! I'm planning on depositing on another site soon, I should probably do more than $500 initially if I'm planning to play $10 games.