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[Closed] NL25 SH: donkbet allin on a paired flop

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plaukas
Joined: 10.04.2007

Villain VPIP: 50, PFR: 4 over 26 hands. I won 100 BBs from him a few hands ago where he had an overpair against my quads.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $34.57
UTG+1: $48.15
CO: $35.71
Hero: $47.88
SB: $25.95
BB: $6.74

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is Button with K♦ K♠
UTG raises to $1, UTG+1 calls, CO folds, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: Q♦ 2♦ Q♠ ($9.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 is all-in $44.15, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: $44.15 returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: $9.35

Now I think I should have called him. Probably my thinking was effected by the fact that I was deepish. What hands could he have? Would he play a flushdraw in such a way?


1 reply

Call is high variance play. So I'd rather let it go, since you're deep.
I assume that player is not shoving here with rando 2 hands, so he probably has here flushdraw or Qx or boat. But he could easily hold AA and now is scared since there is two queens ont he board + flushdraw, so he wants to get money all-in with his overpair and hopes that you don't call with your hand (mostly because he is afraid to get outdrawed by flushdraw).
So in generally you´re not in that good shape against his possible hand range, so I rather like to fold here.