[Closed] Nl100 AJs versus UTG+1 raiser.

I always give a 50% discount if he is UTG so his PFR is 10 in the long run. I only push after this raise with AQ+ TT+ to be break-even or slight +EV.

Pushing with your 23bb stack is somewhat overbetting so reraising 2.5x to $8.5 is a somehow better alternative. If he reraise you then, then I would consider giving him a 3% range and calculate the necessary pot odds. if you are +EV, push otherwise fold accordingly

i think its very marginal.
you have no sampelsize for that play. 100 hands is nothing for that. He can easily have only 15% PFR overall.

In UTG you can give him 2/3 PFR in late 4/3 PFR and in MP PFR = PFR.

Against a 14% range you can push AJ. But you need also a edge against the players behind you.

The bigger stack is also a handycap to push that loose.
I would fold.

Originally posted by DaPhunk
I guessed his Raise early % to be something like 15 or 16. Do you think this is right?

Someone who plays such an unsolid 70/20 style PF is not often going to understand how position should influence his opening range. If villain's ATS is very high then you might lend his raise a little more credit but even then I doubt it would be any narrower than 15%. Some of these incompetents are also capable of limping big hands which yet further weaken opening ranges.

I'd say that your AJs has to be a solid favourite here. Your shove might also chase out better aces which would have otherwise entered the pot. NH since you will get called so often here by loads of crappy Ax hands and all manner of random junk.

70/20with ATS43/W$SD34 over 100 hands => villain has very poor PF strategy and doesn't know where the fold button is.

I like your reasoning Nunki. You read the situation exactly right and hit the nail on the head for sure!

I will remember your argument in future when playing guys like this it makes perfect sense. I will naturally treat this as an extreme case though, me would bigger sample size.

(If anyone is intrigued to what hand he had - JTo. Bottom end of a 20% raising range)

My normal line would have been to do a regular sized 3bet. This was more aggressive than usual for me.

AJ is such a bad hand, i fold here

you have no samplesize to justify this play