[Closed] It's On You: guess hero's play by 19/02 and win $50

Villain has bottom or middle set. Call on the turn and if I don't improve to a boat on the river, probably just fold to a shove or call and pay him off if he bets small.

Stats on villain would be nice ♦... without stats:

I would simply call turn, I think we are ahead and I`m not afraid of a FD, I think it's much more likely he will raise a FD on flop. He could have 88,22 ofc but also A2s,A8, and sometimes AQ wanting to see where he is at.

Raising is not good because he is just folding his bluffs and maybe even A2,A8 if we shove...

So call turn, call any river.

Shove, get value from flush draw, flush draw + pair hands, flush draw + inside str8 draws, and/or weaker two pairs.

Stacks:
UTG ($105.45) 105bb
CO ($131) 131bb
Hero (BTN) ($222.75) 223bb
SB ($215.40) 215bb
BB ($86.20) 86bb

Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 5 players) Hero is BTN A♥ K♥
1 fold, CO raises to $3, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: K♣ 8♠ 2♠ ($7.50, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.75, CO calls $3.75

Turn: A♦ ($15, 2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $10.50, CO raises to $42, Hero ???

I'm never folding. If villain happens to have unlikely set and gets paid off, especially when making such a fishy play, it's just a sick cooler.

I'm not shoving either. Villain's line seems so bluffy that I think he can still fold most of his range to our shove. I don't think he has strong flush-draw here, when he doesn't cbet that flop. Maybe some very unlikely two pairs (A8s, K8s?) that will get it in with worse than our holding. I'm expecting much more a very weak draw that will continue AI on the river, so my line is call turn/call river (even spades).

On turn IMO you should just call. It is very likely he has a set, could be a FD (AK spades makes the most sense) or some sort of 2 pair which ch/r for protection. If we re-raise he is folding his bluffs, so calling the turn and evaluating the river is the best.

i say call on the turn because villain should cbet his sets and FDs on the flop, along with the majority of other hands he opens with. when he checks this flop he looks like he's got some SDV hand like a 2nd PP or 8x hand. when he checkraises the turn he can have some random slowplayed nuts but he could also be turning these PPs and 8x hands into bluffs. he can also just turn A8. i get the money on the river vs A8 anyway, but by calling the turn we get to keep his SDV hands that he turns into a bluff. so i call turn and station the river probably

I raise, I think a set is very unlikely and can't be the basis of our decision. A flushdraw might be scary, a bet might get him to fold, which we'd like. If we simply call, he gets to see if he's hit the flush for free.

If he actually did hit a set, that's unfortunate, but as I said, can't scare us into folding. he raised the flop a little, which might be slow play, but leads me to believe he might have that flushdraw. the much higher bet on the turn looks like a scare to me. I don't see a way where he actually improved with the turn more than we did.

PF: I put villain in a 22% open range. 64% equilate to us.
In flop, villain range goes to Ax spades, KQ spade, AK, KK+, 88, 22 and A8. This equilate us 54%
In turn, we have our two pairs, but villain range with his monster bet goes to KK+, AK, 88, 22 and A8. Against this range, we have 42% equity, so we have to calculate pot odds.
$15 + 10.5 + 42 in pot, and we need pay 42 - 10.5 to stay in play
Pot 67,5 to play 31.5 = 46,6% equity needed to play. So here we can just play for implied odds.
Our hand improve in river only with an ace or a king, and with this river, villain will do not put more chips in play. Other rivers are for villain equity, and spades, 8 or 2 are for villain.

So, I go for a crying fold here.

Villain opens and then does not cbet or c/r flop with 2 spades on board.So, he most likely does not have a set. Also, if he had a FD he should be cbetting the flop . His c/r on the turn imo mostly indicates a lower 2 pair like A8 . So,I would be shoving here because we lose value if a 3rd spade hits on the river

By flatting pre we've under repped our hand, I think villain has a lot of Ax, draws & picked up equity on the turn here so I think it's a mandatory shove & expect to get called by worse. Given villains stack size flatting isn't an option.

Never folding here cause we are on top of our range.

Depending on opponents c/raise turn tendency we can both just call or raise here.
By raising we are extracting value vs A8 hands as well as Axs of spades which he definitely has in c/calling range on flop.
Just calling is better option if opponent in his raising range just have A8 and 22 and 88 combos. We have showdown value type of hand and want to call down to river instead of raising here.
I don't see opponent having KK and AA here as there is already AK in our hand + A and K on the board (decrease number of combos down to 1 each only!)

Overall we should raise if opponent is raising sets, TP with FD here as well as A8 type of hands.
We should just call if he c/raises sets and A8 combos.

Awesome promotion yet again from PokerStrategy - well done guys !

I fold.

Because only 3 ppl can win and it is -ev to be one of 1000's of guys saying I call.

This is not easy without any information about villain. But I think we should just call here. We want to have the widest possible range here and if we raise we fold out all of his bluffs and if he has worse 2 pairs or he has a set the stacks gonna go in anyways. If he decided to turn smth like JJ or some Kx hand into a bluff then we can let him bluff. And I would call any river bet on any card, if he checks I would shove.

fold,there's a three of a kind hand on CO,aces most probably,but even deuces would pull the trick, co lures hero into the bet,it isn't a justified call/re-raise n that bet ,unless u're dealing with a loose player:)) going on tilt,even so, no coverage on the bet size with ak pairs

I think that the best option is to shove.

With the missed cbet on the flop, the villian migth not have sets and FD, so he probably hit something with the A on the turn or he is in a complete bluff. We need to shove here, because there are a lot of river cards that will stop the villian to put more $$$ in the pot, so to be able to extract the highest value of this hand, and since we are almost every time in front, the shove is the best option.

Since we didn't 3bet preflop villain doesn't think we can have hands like AK, AA, KK so our hand is certainly underrepped. For him to play a set of 88 or 22 is really weird I would expect him to ch/raise flop if he had that. To me it looks like a fancy bluff or maybe a weaker 2 pair like A8 or A2. All in all I think the best play is to call the turn and snap off a river bet on any card.

The only hand that I think he can play that way for pure value that owns us is a set of KK of which of course there is only 1 combo... so if he got that then its just a cooler

Reasons for flatting pre would also be nice

Minraise with position pre and flat call post flop would have me suspicious. The turn pretty much eliminates any 2pr combo's. What can you beat that the villain would c/raise? Nothing but a bluff. Without some history on the villain I'd be inclined to fold. You've been repping TPTK from the begining. From the villains standpoint he prob hopes you have the flush draw as well and reshove.

Definitely a fold.

This hand is kinda like asking: Your opponent raises, you have 99 what do you do? Well, what game are we playing? Not enough info to answer. Same here...

But ok lets try. I think we can narrow down what is going on in this hand by thinking why hero flatted AKs preflop.
Thoughts:

1) Hero is a weak reg and missplayed the hand. Unlikely because everyone knows AKs is a standard 3bet preflop. So the fact that hero posted this hand makes me think that he is confident that calling pre is correct.
2) He missclicked. Also unlikely to post such a hand.
3) if CO is a fish, there is virtually no situation in which flatting AKs is correct. Unless the blinds are very aggressive squeezers - but even then its probably wrong because they will also cold 4bet with a wide range. So CO is not a fish!
4) CO is a super nit and we cant get any value by 3betting AKs. Also unlikely given the games at NL100 that I played.
5) CO is a TAG or nit and we are expecting a squeeze and planning to backraise. Possible.
6) There is a fish in the blinds and hero thinks there is more value in getting the fish in the pot then in 3betting vs CO. Also possible and likely given the stack size of BB. So lets go with this option.

So I think BTN called with AKs preflop because of BB not because of CO tendencies which means that CO is most likely a regular.

His range on the flop:

I dont remember the last time someone check called with a set as PFR and then check raised the turn. Honestly its just not how people play sets...Same with AA.

Same thing for flush draws, most people double barrel, reavaluate river.

I think he is check calling the flop with a marginal made hand: 99-QQ, 8x, 55-77,AQ maybe.

His range on the Turn

Unless he is very creative and will turn something into a bluff, he should not have bluffs on the turn because we excluded draws on the flop. His most likely hand is A8. He can also have AQ but its not as likely. He might also be turning a pocket pair into a bluff, but its somewhat unlikely as i said.

Our best line:

Shove. We are getting his stack pretty much all the time but he might find a hero fold on some rivers: K, spade,Q are somewhat scary for his A8.

If a fold is somehow correct in this hand than talking about it is a waste of time. Folding AK in this kind of situation is probably correct once in 10 million hands.