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88 - NL10 set on draw heavy board

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pityumeszi
Joined: 04.05.2012

PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: 60.2 BB (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 14.29, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 14)
SB: 102.2 BB (VPIP: 22.95, PFR: 18.03, 3Bet Preflop: 7.69, Hands: 127)
BB: 230.9 BB (VPIP: 24.14, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 60)
Hero (UTG): 100.9 BB
MP: 116.3 BB (VPIP: 19.44, PFR: 15.46, 3Bet Preflop: 4.17, Hands: 439)
CO: 106.1 BB (VPIP: 33.33, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has 8♦ 8♥

Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, CO calls 3 BB, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold

Flop: (10 BB, 3 players) J♠ 8♠ K♦
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, fold, SB calls 5 BB

Turn: (20 BB, 2 players) 7♦
SB checks, Hero bets 12.7 BB, SB raises to 30 BB, Hero calls 17.3 BB

River: (80 BB, 2 players) T♣
SB bets 64.2 BB and is all-in, fold

SB wins 76.4 BB

Hi,

ColdCall is 1/22.
AF is 9.

Range: 66 - TT. Might be slow playing KK or JJ but probably he'd have 3bet thoose hands. It can be QA+ but in this case it is a very wrong play. I would put him on a pocket pair.

preflop: standard

flop: good situation I am IP, I think I should have raised 3/4 size of the pot.

turn: I call the 3 bet, I think I should have shoved it, he definitely does not have 9T ... I would rather say 77. Since turn 3bet shows very strong hand it can be JJ, KK or AQ but theese are not in the calling range in SB.

river: I folded and I do not know if I can make here a profitable call?

thanks


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Hi.

I'm not sure why you don't think he could have T9s here. He probably doesn't have 77 in my opinion, given that he would have check-folded the Flop.

I guess he could still have KJ (s) but T9s seems like the likeliest hand in his range. If you think he could potentially check-raise a ton of hands here like QT/flush draws, jamming here immediately is a good idea. If you are unsure and think he is on the tighter side, calling to call most rivers is fine.

Here on the Ten, I think you can call. I don't think he has AQ too often here, and you would have lost to T9s anyway. All flush draws did miss, and I don't see him having 9X too often as well.


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