AKQTss against 4bet

i would not fold it to the 4b ♦

Well I didn't either ♦, but it felt like bad play and gambling, that ace hurts our equity

Hi,

Standard 3-bet/call spot.
Your equity against aces is 30,6%
Hand Equity Wins Ties
AA** 69.40% 413,653 5,441
AhKcQsTh 30.60% 180,906 5,441

And you get 2.3:1, which gives you 30,29% pot odds.

You would be making slight -EV play if you folded your hand pre-flop, but since he oop and likely would pot 90% of boards you can make better decisions postflop.

Best regards,

Hi,

vs AA this is a snap fold preflop. I don't understand Kaitz20's math. So you would be making a - Ev preflop call even tough postflop we have 0 implieds and will hit terrible equity vs AA on a lot of boards?

When you have an ace and get 4bet, 100bb deep you need to have great connected sidecards that don't need an A to make a str8 to make profitable call. 100bb deep you really need ds hands with an A to make a call.

Regards,

Skod

but the side cards are quit good connected here would u call if the K is an J :spade:?

Originally posted by Skodljivec
Hi,

vs AA this is a snap fold preflop. I don't understand Kaitz20's math. So you would be making a - Ev preflop call even tough postflop we have 0 implieds and will hit terrible equity vs AA on a lot of boards?

When you have an ace and get 4bet, 100bb deep you need to have great connected sidecards that don't need an A to make a str8 to make profitable call. 100bb deep you really need ds hands with an A to make a call.

Regards,

Skod

My mistake, discounted twice his raise sizes. Pot odds should be 31,64%. If we give him aces with broadway hands then our equity drops likely around 25%. Against blank aces our equity should still be 30%. I don´t agree that we don´t have any implied equitys, since he should pot it close to 100% of boards and definitely not going to c/f when we hit two pair or better.
But ofcourse it is not the best idea to go against very strong range.

best regards,

Hi,

i did this math long ago, and you can only call a 4b from AA with AQJTds. SS isn't good enough. I think you can call with AT98ss, but it's superclose.

Regards,

Skod

Can you explain, how you die the math? Here is my approach:

At first, I thought, this is a MUST call. We have a narrow preflopcall, position and know the hand of villain very well... but as mentioned, I tried some math as well:

assumptions:
- Villain raises any AA preflop from UTG
- Villain 4bets any of this AA
- Villain 4bets no other hands
- Villain pushes every Flop
- We know on which Flops we have over 33% vs AA

EV-fold-pre: 25$ - 2.9$= 22.1$
EV-call pre = EV-postflop-broke + EV-postflop-fold
The pot on the Flop is 8.2$*2 + 0.35$ = 16.75$ (pot)
The Stacks are 25-8.2$ = 16.8$ ---> SPR= ca. 1; we need 33% equity to call his push
I use the Omaha-Equilator Tools--> equity-graph for next street to see on how many (relative) Flops we have what equity against AA. From there I can see,
that we have in about 38% of the Flops over 33%.
Now comes the most uncertain part: the mean equity we have in this 38% of the flops:
We would need an integral to get this, but from the graph i estimated ca. 59% mean equity, when we broke.
EV-postflop-broke: 0.38*0.59*50.35$ = 11.29$
EV-postflop-fold: in 62% of the flops we fold and have 16.8$ left: 0.62*16.8$ = 10.42$
EV-pre-call= 11.29$+10.42$= 21.71$

The rake would narrow down EV-postflop-broke a bit: 2.5$ rake would do raked-EV-pre-call = 21.15

So for me it would be a very narrow decision. But with all the assumptions a fold is way superior, of course. A call, even if +-EV, pushes the variance additionally.

PS: In my maths(with this strict assumptions) I see AhQsJcTh as +-EV and AhKsQhTs as definitive +EV.

Regards MGF

Hi,

a lot of people don't belive me, but i never ever made any serious math assumptions in plo and yet manage to be a plo200 winner atm ♦. The math i "did" was basically something one of my coaches showed me when i was starting out and when he explained everything to me it made sense so i belived it ♦.

Still, your math seems just about correct. It's irrelevant that we know what our opponent has, because with an A in our hand we are dominated from the start, and are basicalyl defending with 3 cards; in this case those 3 cards often even need an A to make a str8, reducing our equity even further.

Like you said, if the hand is double suited it coud be to close to a call, but if you think about the rake it gets superclose and shoots variance through the roof.

Maybe Kyyberi can reply here even further ♦ He's a math geek ♦

Regards,

Skod