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NL100 2pair OTR

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Yozan
Joined: 01.01.2010

$0.50/$1 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

CO: $52.90 (52.9 bb)
BTN: $32.61 (32.6 bb)
SB: $100 (100 bb)
Hero (BB): $101.50 (101.5 bb)
MP: $109.20 (109.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A J
MP raises to $3, 3 folds, Hero calls $2

Flop: ($6.50) A J 4 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $3.25, Hero raises to $11.50, MP calls $8.25

Turn: ($29.50) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $18, MP calls $18

River: ($65.50) 8 (2 players)
Hero ???

Villain: weak reg, large sample.
27/20, f3b 57, RFI: 16, AF 3
cbet: 72, 60, 44, fcb2raise: 46
BetOTR: 37, WTSD 26, WWSF 45

Read: He called raise on the flop with TPWK on drawy flop
and then called on turn on made flush, no redraw.


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mbml
Joined: 27.11.2008

Let's see...

Better hands
AA/JJ/44: 5#
AQ: 6#
QQ: 1#? (maybe he sometimes bet-calls Flop with this)
KT: 1# or 2#, not sure how often he bet-calls KT without K:hT:h
T:h9:h: 1#
Total: 14#

Weaker made hands
AK - 8#
A4s - 2#
AT - 8#
A8s - 1#
A9s-A2s - 12#
J:hK:h, J:hQ:h, J:hT:h, J:h9:h - 4#
Total: 35#

~71% equity vs a bluff catching range

TBH I find it really hard for you to have 3-streets of value but if you think he has reason to call you down with enough worse hands, then by all means go bet the River. You need him to call down with 40%+ of his bluff catching range

But you are not that huge of a favourite here and unless you can rep a ton of busted draws (only flush draws in this case cos most straight draws complete here), I don't think he is calling down with enough worse hands.

Check-call is a good option.


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