$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
PokerStars
6 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Stacks:
UTG ($115.51) 116bb
UTG+1 ($148.62) 149bb
CO ($53.50) 54bb
Hero (BTN) ($129.90) 130bb
SB ($126.84) 127bb
BB ($149.85) 150bb
Pre-Flop: ($1.50, 6 players) Hero is BTN K♦ J♣
UTG raises to $3, 1 fold, CO calls $3, Hero raises to $11, 2 folds, UTG calls $8, CO folds
Flop: K♠ 7♠ 8♦ ($26.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $14, UTG calls $14
Turn: 6♠ ($54.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero checks
River: 8♥ ($54.50, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $30.50, UTG folds
BB reg with passive side, low 4b, 60% fold to 3b.
CO not big sample, but 33% fold to 3b and tight opening ranges after 200h doesn't sugest he is pro mss.
Don't kinda love calling here, KQo will be definitely a call, so KJo seems fine to sqz here, does it?
Flop i think is clear vbet from his 99-JJ, expecting to get 4b with AK/QQ+ (most often), on the other side I don't expect him to hold KQ too often, KT is fold for sure on his side.
In math, on EP he continue with ~31% of his 17% range vs sqqueeze, and doesn't catch it during the hand, so in total he defend ~88+, AQo+, KQs+ so even this i dont have value bet on flop.
Anyway, when he check on river, i don't think he has flush, set, so basicly (maybe) AK and KQ, QQ-99, i have kinda bluffing stats so he might call with hand like TT when i bet here, which I did in a hand, but overall probably i prefer checking back and bet probably only with AK and turn some Ax into a bluff.
But are my assumptions are correct?
