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KTs 4Bet All In

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Aether91
Joined: 30.11.2013

I've been reading hand evaluations for a while but this is the first time I've posted one myself. In the game I was sure this was the right move but after thinking about it a bit more and trying it in equilab I'm less confident in it.

This was a 6 man game, so we were on the bubble.

The villan's stats at the time were 51/19 with a 3bet of 22.2, and it felt like he'd loosened up a lot when we'd got to the bubble, so I thought he'd be 3betting me fairly wide here
My thinking was that he'd have to fold most of his 3bet range and I had decent equity against a lot of hands he'd continue with

After the game ended I put the hand into equilab against a range of 22%, and it told me that I had about 45% equity

Am I right in thinking that once I consider fold equity this makes it worth playing, or did I make a small mistake here?

IPoker, $0.17 Buy-in (50/100 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 3 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): 2,030 (20.3 bb)
SB: 3,562 (35.6 bb)
BB: 3,408 (34.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K T
Hero raises to 250, SB raises to 1,000, BB folds, Hero raises to 2,030 and is all-in, SB calls 1,030

Spoiler

Flop: (4,160) 8 A Q (2 players, 1 is all-in)
Turn: (4,160) A (2 players, 1 is all-in)
River: (4,160) J (2 players, 1 is all-in)

Results:
4,160 pot
Final Board: 8 A Q A J
Hero mucked K T and won 4,160 (2,130 net)
SB showed K K and lost (-2,030 net)


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3 replies
tonypmm
Joined: 11.01.2009

He's getting 1-to-3 pot odds and affected by the bubble (ICM) factor way less than you because his stack is 1.8 times bigger and he'll have a decent stack and good ITM prospect even if he loses the pot. I doubt he folds enough here, especially because his 3bet sizing is too big (4x), and his VPIP/PFR ratio looks very fishy, whereas normally the sizing of such players is proportional to the hand strength.

It's you whose tourney life is on the line here, and you need significantly more than 45% vs his range. KTs is a classical trap hand, it's in a bad shape vs the likes of AT and KJ, and in a meh shape vs Ax and pocket pairs.

We yet have 20 bb, and there will be more chances to let the SB bully 'hang himself' when we pick up a premium hand. The bubble factor forces us to be really tight with a short stack on the button (the situation would be different blind-vs-blind as there would be only one potential caller instead of two and the same 1.5 bb to steal).


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Aether91
Joined: 30.11.2013

Thanks tony, I hadn't thought of the effect of the bubble factor from his point of view, that's a good point.

I think I need to go back and check his other 3bets when I can, I had the impression that this was a fairly typical one for him but it would be good to compare it to his other sizings.

He'd forced me to fold an opening raise at least once in similar circumstances by this point with his 3betting and I thought he might be trying the same again here with weaker, perhaps this was just too optimistic on my part.

How would you have played this hand? if you don't fold pre, would you call or fold to his 3bet? and if you called it, how would you have played the flop?


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chenny8888
Joined: 03.10.2007

Hi all,

1. Do you think he'll fold having to call 1000 more once he's put in 1000?
2. If not, do you think we're ahead of his range?

If the answer to both is no, then we should fold. If the answer to either is yes, then we can get it in.

Fold is good.


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