Confused on certain flops

cbet is good here. vill would probably raise hands OTF that have you beat or drawing real thin. his min raise on turn kinda reps a draw. you could 4 bet turn due to him calling flop and raising a bricked turn. as played any 10 got there on river so checking behind is best. if the river bricks you could check call to let him bet worse than TPTK, but you control the pot aswell incase vill has 2 pair. the river is where the real decision would lie in this hand.

Hi there,

First of all, when you have AK and hit top-pair even on such board I would go for bet/bet/bet here as standard. Of course, if it goes to a 4-to-straight board I would suggest checking there.

First of all, you should have some stats on your villain (or reads) about whether he is passive or not. Against a passive fish the turn is easy bet/fold as he calls you down with Qx, some Jx, FD's and many worse Aces and only raises nuts like sets/straights and 2p combos. Versus some more aggro or just stupid player I'd just bet/call turn and call small river-bets on a blank.

But definititely not 3-betting turn as it only isolates us versus the best hands in his range. River could be a small bet like 0.40, but it's super thin and he might not call here with that many hands.

When IP this is a good board to checkback on the flop with your hand and make delayed cbet or call if villain decides to lead. This way you extract more value of his bluff type hands.

On these boards usually when you bet/bet/bet you will lose most of the times because by the river villains range is going to beat you.

So when you check/bet/bet you keep weaker hands in his range, hands like 2nd or 3rd pair because your flop check in his perspective means you don't have top pair and you try to put him off the hand.

Hope this explains something.

And as for this specific hand, I would go for check/bet/bet or check (depending on villains tendencies).

Rihard

Originally posted by Rihard4a
When IP this is a good board to checkback on the flop with your hand and make delayed cbet or call if villain decides to lead. This way you extract more value of his bluff type hands.

On these boards usually when you bet/bet/bet you will lose most of the times because by the river villains range is going to beat you.

So when you check/bet/bet you keep weaker hands in his range, hands like 2nd or 3rd pair because your flop check in his perspective means you don't have top pair and you try to put him off the hand.

Hope this explains something.

And as for this specific hand, I would go for check/bet/bet or check (depending on villains tendencies).

Rihard

Hi,

I think when one plays NL2 this is super standard cbet 100 % of the time. 2 factors:

1. We don't expect them to bluff when we check to them, coz they are passive and
2. They are calling our bet way too wide

--> Thus, betting here is mandatory.

Originally posted by CPallo

Originally posted by Rihard4a
When IP this is a good board to checkback on the flop with your hand and make delayed cbet or call if villain decides to lead. This way you extract more value of his bluff type hands.

On these boards usually when you bet/bet/bet you will lose most of the times because by the river villains range is going to beat you.

So when you check/bet/bet you keep weaker hands in his range, hands like 2nd or 3rd pair because your flop check in his perspective means you don't have top pair and you try to put him off the hand.

Hope this explains something.

And as for this specific hand, I would go for check/bet/bet or check (depending on villains tendencies).

Rihard

Hi,

I think when one plays NL2 this is super standard cbet 100 % of the time. 2 factors:

1. We don't expect them to bluff when we check to them, coz they are passive and
2. They are calling our bet way too wide

--> Thus, betting here is mandatory.

That's pretty vague assumption. Just because it is nl2 doesn't mean we should bet blindly because we have value and assume villain is gonna call anything and reason it as - it is nl2. This is not how winning player should think. When you bet you have consider what hands will call flop turn and river. If majority of hands will be that beat us, there is no point betting. We need to consider what we want to be called by, not just bet and expect value from something. In poker, there is no such thing as mandatory, the game always seeks adjustments.

Rihard

Okay, I will make calculations. I assume he is a fishy player as he doesn't have full-stack, meaning his range might be like this on flop when he calls. First range assumption is against avg. calling station:

Pöytä: A♣J♣Q♥
           VO  Voitto   Tasan
BU     69.30%  65.31%   3.99% { AhKs }
SB     30.70%  26.70%   3.99% { JJ, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, T9s, Kc9c, Qc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Tc8c, Kc7c, Qc7c, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+, Kd9h, Kd9s, Kd9c, Kh9d, Ks9d, Kc9d, JdTh, JdTs, JdTc, JhTd, JsTd, JcTd }

Then against some tighter range where he won't call all of those hands:

Pöytä: A♣J♣Q♥
           VO  Voitto   Tasan
BU     68.59%  64.61%   3.98% { AhKs }
SB     31.41%  27.42%   3.98% { JJ, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, T9s, Kc9c, Qc9c, Kc8c, Qc8c, Tc8c, A2o+, KTo+, Q9o+ }

---> We have clear value-bet here. Even if he wouldn't call hand like QT here it's stil clear he will have wide calling range. He might even sometimes have hands like 89cc, 67cc in his range which makes value-bet even more clear.

Ofc, if villain is tighter it's more close, but it would still be a clear bet.

Against turn min-raise it's already harder to give any range assumptions versus totally unknown. It could be some random raise with Ax, GSSD, OESD, FD, even made hand. But he will most likely quit bluffing on river, so thus I'd call for the odds and re-evaluate.

CPallo.

The problem with your assumptions is that you look only on flop and base decisions only on range that calls flop. As a competent player you have think how your flop decision affects further streets. Once you bet flop, villains turn calling range will become tighter. You turn again and range becomes narrower. After you bet flop and turn and now bet river, think what are getting called by? Even if river is not K, but for.example it bricks. Either way you are in difficult spot for value betting river. Think what you getting called by not just the strength of your hand, and tbh TPTK on such board isn't great hand at all no matter who it is against. The problem is that the board hits many ranges, and the harder it hits villains range the more passive lines you should take, unless you have a read that villain is happily calling down 3rd pair or w/e on any texture. So as long you don't have reads why you bother doing pointless crazy moves?

Edit: sorry for any grammatical mistakes. Typing from.phone.

Originally posted by Rihard4a
The problem with your assumptions is that you look only on flop and base decisions only on range that calls flop. As a competent player you have think how your flop decision affects further streets. Once you bet flop, villains turn calling range will become tighter. You turn again and range becomes narrower. After you bet flop and turn and now bet river, think what are getting called by? Even if river is not K, but for.example it bricks. Either way you are in difficult spot for value betting river. Think what you getting called by not just the strength of your hand, and tbh TPTK on such board isn't great hand at all no matter who it is against. The problem is that the board hits many ranges, and the harder it hits villains range the more passive lines you should take, unless you have a read that villain is happily calling down 3rd pair or w/e on any texture. So as long you don't have reads why you bother doing pointless crazy moves?

Edit: sorry for any grammatical mistakes. Typing from.phone.

My range assumption was for calling the flop. The range pre-flop is usually wider on average fish tbh. Thus I would just bet F/bet T and re-evaluate river as fish will give up draws there.

So tbh, this is clear value bet for F and T, and we can't fold this hand on turn versus random min-raise, unless we have the read that he is really passive.

We lose tons of value versus loose passive fish by checking flop coz they are not bluffing themselves like ever and usually are raising only better.

A player dosen't use auto top up is probably a recretional player, I would bet for value / Protection we want to build a pot with our hand, if we get raised we can assume a very strong range from villian.

I'd bet/bet/bet here too. (maybe check the river depending on runout)

And you could give him loads of stuff like suited connectors/gappers. I actually think you miss so much value checking this flop.

Still missing the bigger image.

If we're going for two streets of value I'd much rather flop + turn. Than turn + river...

Yeah depends whether you want to make more or less money.

In which manners do he make more money by checking back a super draw heavy board? We got a super vulnerable hand, and you wish to give a freecard gg.

Maybe we can solve your incorrect thought proess here Rihard4a.

- First, what range would you give for a average NL2 fish?
- Second, what hands do you think a fish will bluff with on turn?

Originally posted by Saren113
In which manners do he make more money by checking back a super draw heavy board? We got a super vulnerable hand, and you wish to give a freecard gg.

The thing is whether you give a free card or charge for it doesn't make the fact is gonna call anyway, so whether he has a hand or a draw he is gonna call no matter what you bet so the result is not gonna change. However the hands that are not willing to continue for several betting streets might fold flop or turn after you bet flop.

When you check back you play against wider range which is +EV, villain is gonna be willing to call down lighter.

If you bet/bet/bet and get raised on the river you will be folding most of the river cards because villain will rarely have any bluffs in such spot, when you check/bet/bet and get raised you can construct bluffing range in that situation on several board runouts. So on a board like this whenever you bet river and get called, you will mostly LOSE than WIN. Yes on such river you beat many two pairs, some people may not even call river with two on this board, some will. But if river is a brick that doesn't improve your hand, GL value betting this board.

Originally posted by CPallo
Maybe we can solve your incorrect thought proess here Rihard4a.

- First, what range would you give for a average NL2 fish?
- Second, what hands do you think a fish will bluff with on turn?

Why would you suddenly assume that I have incorrect thought process? You state that I have incorrect thought process, however you are 100% certain that villain is fish, however just because he has 99bb does not indicate of his playing ability, so calling him fish without any valid information is already incorrect thought process.

In general SB cold calling range is very tight and hits board very hard. I won't go into detail what happens when you bet/bet/bet as I don't like to repeat too much, and if you still cannot understand the reason why it is not so good not my problem.

However, when we check back flop we give villain a chance to value bet himself. So he can lead out 2nd or 3rd pair sometimes thinking that he is good here. Just because this villain didn't do that, doesn't mean this isn't true, remember we care about long-term not short-term.

The thing is that we still extract value from hands that call flop after our bet, by checking flop we give us the chance to get money from hands that don't hit the flop and just want to x/f. So if villain suddenly has 7s8s we might try to get us off the hand because he knows he can't win if he checks. And don't start bullshitting about what fish would do or wouldn't. Fish as a label is vague, what really matters are specific reads rather than stack size or w/e. If we don't have valid reads that he calls down light we have to use general assumptions instead. And general assumption is that if we bet/bet/bet we are gonna lose more than if we check/bet/bet.

I don't really want this thread to start some hatred or flame war about somebodies opinions or thought process being invalid. Just remember when making decision think what you try to accomplish. If you want value, this what hands can you beat by the river if you do X, Y or Z.

Take care

Rihard

I do not agree with your thinking, but If you think this is the way you will get the most EV out of him then fine. And this is why I don't agree with you, simply because He might stab once, but he will rarely barrel. I rather focus on his top pairs that we crush and valuetown him, when he calls down with any top pair.

I hope I make any sense.

But i get your thinking, but I don't think this is a good board to do this on as there are so many bad turns and rivers, we need to let him pay with his gutshots etc or weak fd or whatever. I think we lose alot of value by not betting on this type of flop.

As the avg player call to much we need to bet and get value when they call when they dosen't get the right price to call.

And I am not flaming, I just want you to see how I am thinking.

But you still keep forgetting that you still extract value from his weaker value hands if you check back. What really matters is that you give him a chance to make a mistake, where you will never make mistake by checking back this flop.

I understand that you want to extract value from the hands he has hit or his draws. But you have to understand the fact you extract the same amount when you let him bluff his draws as you would bet on the flop.

EXAMPLE: he has two clubs, any two doesn't matter. So when you bet flop he calls, you bet turn he calls. You bet river when he misses he folds anyway. If you check flop, he bets turn you call. He misses river he might still bluff his missed draw and you call and still you make the same amount of money.

EXAMPLE2: He has something that didn't connect the board in any way, so let's say 72o. You bet flop he folds without thinking about doing anything fancy. If you check the flop, you give him the chance of being Tom Dwan and try to bluff you on the turn at least. So instead of making 0bb of the hand you suddenly make 4bb, and in the long-run this will be some extra money from spots where you would never make. Think about it.

Don't think only about hands that will beat us when we give free card, those hands will beat us no matter what we do if they complete. Think about what you try to accomplish, as the main factor should be make more money. Well then make the best decision to make the most money not some money.

Rihard

I accept your thought process on higher limits, lets say from NL25 to higher. But here even regs are calling down with Ax like 97 %, and they can call with draws and even mid-pairs given the positions.

I rest my case here and say, that it is way better to bet/bet/check or even bet/bet/bet depending on run-out. Draws can call F and T, but never river. Ax can call 2-3 streets, mid-pairs can call 2 streets for sure.

And that's versus reg. Against a fish we can have value from any GSSD, even some weaker sc's, Ax, Jx..